Aegon's Too Cheap to Ignore
The insurer has had its share of problems, but we think it's turned the corner.
Aegon’s (AEG) strategic framework continues to center on simplification and growth. What initially attracted us is a very cheap valuation, but that isn’t really enough to warrant investment. However, when we map out a reasonable path to earnings, we find Aegon too cheap to ignore, though admittedly, it is still probably one of the lowest-quality names in our European insurance coverage and in the whole of the European insurance space. Within our valuation, we are much less interested in cost savings and much more interested in retirement product conversions and retention; this is particularly pertinent to the United States.
The market ascribes a 4.5% average return on equity to this business over the next five years, which we have backed out of the current valuation. We basically think this is a bear-case scenario with continuing high outflows and withdrawals and not factoring what we think now are better management incentives and control over the actuarial model and assumption environment. Our base-case return on equity averages 6.0%, in line with the business’ average profitability over the past 13 years.
Henry Heathfield does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.