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Rekenthaler Report

Should We Have Foreseen This Bull Market?

The future that almost nobody predicted.

The Judgment of Time
History may not regard us kindly.

It does not speak highly of the perspicacity of post-World War II investors. In 1949, the S&P 500 traded at 6 times earnings, entering an economic boom. Labor was cheap, new technologies would spark productivity gains, and the United States had the capital. The stock market was poised to surge. Few saw the opportunity. The S&P 500 rose 353% for the decade of the 1950s, but only 5% of Americans owned equities.