Toys 'R Us Headwinds Largely Subside at Hasbro
The toymaker could be set to deliver modestly positive top-line growth again.
With the domestic Toys ‘R Us liquidation largely in the rearview mirror, Hasbro (HAS) could be set to deliver modestly positive top-line growth again beginning in its fiscal third quarter. Hasbro’s second-quarter sales were already trending better than we expected, falling 7% versus the 10% decline we anticipated. Sales in the U.S. and Canada contracted just 7%, around the percentage of sales Toys ‘R Us represented in 2017, while International business sales continued to struggle, falling 11%, as Europe works through its own Toys ‘R Us wind down and excess inventory problems.
That said, after three consecutive quarters of sales declines, we expect Hasbro to return to positive growth ahead, and forecast second-half sales rising around 2%. Given that inventory levels have already been reduced at existing retailers and are in good condition, we think Hasbro is set up for a better 2018 holiday season than last year.
We don’t plan any material change to our $95 fair value estimate and view shares as modestly overvalued (following a double-digit gain post quarterly results), trading at more than 20 times our 2018 estimate with mid-single-digit EPS growth embedded in our five-year outlook (falling 3% in 2018 hindered by the Toys 'R Us bankruptcy). We also plan to maintain our outlook for total expenses over the next five years, with a cost of goods sold ratio improving slightly to 38% from historical averages (39% over the last five years) as franchise brands increase as a percentage of the total mix.
Our model incorporates operating margins that return to 16% in 2019, ahead of the company's long-term goal of 15% or higher. With expense ratios that we expect to remain stable over the next five years, given the maturity of the business, we think Hasbro can reach peak operating margin between 17%-18% by 2021.
|Morningstar Premium Members gain exclusive access to our full analyst reports, including fair value estimates, bull and bear breakdowns, and risk analyses. Not a Premium Member? Get this and other reports immediately when you try Morningstar Premium free for 14 days.|
Jaime M. Katz does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.