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Time to Stock Up on Campbell Soup

Time to Stock Up on Campbell Soup

Erin Lash: Over the past 18 months, Campbell Soup shares have faltered, falling nearly 30% versus a 25% appreciation in the S&P 500 Index, leaving shares attractively valued relative to other packaged food operators.

In our view, the firm's inflated valuation a year and a half ago reflected sentiment that its profit improvement trajectory would continue unabated. However, in our view, we've long thought the combination of input cost inflation, the need to up the ante on brand reinvestments to support the intangible asset source of its wide moat, as well as the lower profit profile of its expanding natural and organic business all stood to eat into its profit gains.

While Campbell is not immune to the number of headwinds plaguing firms throughout the consumer products realm, we don't view these headwinds as insurmountable nor do we think improvement is anchored within its core soup franchise. When combined with its prudent capital allocation and 3% dividend yield, we think long-term investors would be wise to stock up on this wide moat name.

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About the Author

Erin Lash

Consumer Sector Director
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Erin Lash, CFA, is director of consumer sector equity research for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. In addition to leading the sector team, Lash covers packaged food and household and personal care companies.

Before joining Morningstar in 2006, she spent four years as an investment analyst covering retail, transportation, and technology firms for State Farm Insurance.

Lash holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from Bradley University and a master’s degree in business administration, with concentrations in accounting and finance, from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation. She ranked second in the food and tobacco industry in The Wall Street Journal’s annual “Best on the Street” analysts survey in 2013, the last year the survey was conducted.

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