Amid a substantial rally, aluminum spot prices have reached their highest level since February 2013. Prices have moved higher because of better-than-expected aluminum demand as well as the perceived benefits of capacity reductions in China.
We believe investors have become overly enthusiastic on both counts. Instead, we forecast a significant deceleration in aluminum demand growth and anticipate that the impact of capacity cuts will prove far overstated. Accordingly, we forecast a long-term aluminum price of only $1,475 per tonne (in real terms), nearly 30% below current levels.
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Andrew Lane does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.