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Morningstar Runs the Numbers

We take a numerical look through this week's Morningstar research. Plus, our most popular articles and videos for the week ended June 2.

Inspired by Harper's Index (with a tip of the hat to FiveThirtyEight's Significant Digits blog), Morningstar Runs the Numbers uses a numbers-based approach to highlight recent Morningstar research, along with some outside news stories.

138,000 The Labor Department reported that the economy added a disappointing 138,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 4.3%--the lowest rate since 2001. Director of economic analysis Bob Johnson thinks a combination of this weak report and downward revisions of previously strong employment numbers makes it less likely that the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting.

"[May's jobs report] really changes the whole picture about wage data and what's going on there. At the beginning of the week we got the consumption and income report, and it suggested some huge downward revisions in wage income for the fourth quarter. And now we've got the [Bureau of Labor Statistics], which is a separate set of data, revising some data in 2017, and certainly the labor markets have not grown as fast as previously thought. So maybe the Fed won't be so panicked into [raising interest rates] in again here in June."

93.5% In contrast to Bob Johnson's pessimistic view, the CME Fedwatch tool, which is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed fund futures prices, on Friday was predicting a 93.5% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates at its June 14 meeting.

4 Many retirees and those about to enter retirement are looking for ways to de-risk their portfolios but might be concerned about going into bonds or cash at very low yields. Director of personal finance Christine Benz offers four alternatives to lessen risk in your portfolio.

1938 Friday marked the 79th anniversary of National Doughnut Day, first celebrated in Chicago in 1938, according to Forbes. But it isn't just a marketing ploy, Forbes explains; it was first conceived as a fundraiser by the Salvation Army.

"It was considered a way commemorate the work of the 'doughnut girls' or 'donut lassies' who fed the treats to American soldiers during World War I (the 'doughnut girls' also returned to their baking duties during World War II.)"

25 We looked at the 25 funds that had seen the biggest redemptions in absolute dollar terms over the one-year period through April 30. One takeaway from the results: Investors continue to dump higher-priced funds in favor of lower-priced fare--not only in U.S. stock categories, but in foreign-stock and bond categories, too.

"Eight out of 10 funds with the highest estimated net redemptions were actively managed funds, in a wide array of categories. By contrast, seven of the top 10 most heavily purchased funds were index funds."

3 Major portions of the fiduciary rule will become applicable June 9. Senior equity analyst Michael Wong writes that we are maintaining our fair value estimates and moat ratings for the financial sector firms we cover, as we have long held that the United States would eventually adopt more fiduciary-like standards, and our financial sector valuations and moat ratings already account for the new standard. Wong takes a closer look at three financial firms that look undervalued today.

79 basis points That's the excess return that the average investor in domestic equity funds gave up due to poor timing, writes director of manager research Russ Kinnel in his annual Mind the Gap study. And in fact, investors' timing into and out of bond funds is so poor in aggregate that the shortfall is similar, at 73 basis points. That gap is especially painful because the range of returns for fixed-income funds is much smaller.

"Saving enough money and selecting the right investments are crucial to your success. But timing is another vital piece that investors tend to forget."

10 May 29 (5/29) was National 529 College Savings Plan Day. We celebrated by putting together a guide to college savings that featured 10 articles about college-savings options from 529s to Coverdells to Roth IRAs. To help you choose the plan that's right for you, we included our complete list of 529 plan ratings, as well as discussions of different college-savings vehicles' tax treatments and their effect on financial aid eligibility.

~16% Head of global manager research Jeff Ptak tweeted this interesting fact:

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