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Election Increases Risk for Western Union

We've lowered our long-term growth forecast for the company after the election of Donald Trump.


Brett Horn: The recent election presents some headwinds and some event risk for Western Union. In our view, a more intolerant, nativist administration is likely to have a chilling effect on immigrant population growth in the U.S., and Western Union is directly exposed to that. As a result, we've lowered our long-term growth forecast for the company.

Additionally, some of the more extreme proposals that Trump has floated--such as large scale immigrant deportation; he has also threatened to freeze U.S. to Mexico remittances to leverage Mexico to pay for the law that he has proposed--these obviously could have a very disruptive impact on the industry. U.S. to Mexico, where most of his comments have focused, represent only 5% of the business, but U.S.-originated transfers overall represent about a quarter of the business and we would expect a fairly wide impact.

Brett Horn does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.