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Disney Shares Look Attractive

Strong studio results and a new $1 billion live steaming investment underscore the Mouse's wide-moat rating and our $134 fair value estimate.

Revenue increased by 9% year on year to $14.3 billion, just above our $14.0 billion estimate. The revenue growth was led by studio entertainment with a 40% improvement. EBITDA increased 9% to $4.7 billion as the 58% improvement at studio entertainment and the 10% improvement at parks and resorts more than offset the 7% decline in consumer products. Media networks revenue grew by 2.4% broadcasting as 5% affiliate fee growth more than offset 6% decline in TV/SVOD distribution as Disney sold fewer cable programs in the quarter. The growth in parks and resorts reflected the impact of preopening revenue from the Shanghai resort which opened on June 16. Management remains positive on the park which largely received positive reactions from both local press and social media.

Management discussed its investment in BAMTech, the spinout from MLB Advanced Media. The $1 billion investment in the firm provides Disney with a minority stake of 33% along with the option to buy the remainder of BAMTech. BAMTech is one of the leading online live-streaming companies and currently operates the online platforms for HBO Now, the NHL, the PGA, and WatchESPN, among others. We believe the investment by Disney can be seen as an analogue to the company’s previous investment in Maker Studios in that management perceived a deficiency in its understanding of a new media platform and corrected the deficit via investing in expertise and knowledge.

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About the Author

Neil Macker

Senior Equity Analyst
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Neil Macker, CFA, is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers media/entertainment and video game publishers.

Before joining Morningstar in 2014, Macker was a senior equity research associate for FBR & Co., where he covered the telecommunications services sector. Previously, he was an associate equity analyst for R.W. Baird and completed the summer associate rotational program at UBS Investment Bank. Before attending business school, Macker held analytical roles at Corporate Executive Board and Nextel.

Macker holds a bachelor’s degree from Carleton College, where he graduated cum laude, and a master’s degree in business administration from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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