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Netflix Grows Subscribers, but Shares Still Overvalued

We’re planning on modestly increasing our Netflix fair value to account for faster international expansion.

The international expansion continues to track ahead of expectations on the subscriber side, as Netflix now has 27.4 million paid streaming subscribers, up from 24.0 million last quarter and 16.8 million a year ago. Management announced at CES that Netflix would be available in an additional 130 countries immediately, raising the total countries served to more than 180. While the company was expected to complete its global roll out by the end of 2016, the immediate launch in so many countries was impressive. However, most countries received the skinny launch package with limited library consisting of Netflix originals and acquired global rights programming with the majority of content in English. As management acknowledges, this package will appeal to a thin slice of consumers in many of these new markets, primarily English-speakers with the disposable income to pay $7.50 to $8.00 per month.

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About the Author

Neil Macker

Senior Equity Analyst
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Neil Macker, CFA, is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers media/entertainment and video game publishers.

Before joining Morningstar in 2014, Macker was a senior equity research associate for FBR & Co., where he covered the telecommunications services sector. Previously, he was an associate equity analyst for R.W. Baird and completed the summer associate rotational program at UBS Investment Bank. Before attending business school, Macker held analytical roles at Corporate Executive Board and Nextel.

Macker holds a bachelor’s degree from Carleton College, where he graduated cum laude, and a master’s degree in business administration from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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