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Undervalued Apple Still Shines

Strong underlying demand for Apple products puts 2016 on track to be another growth year, writes Morningstar’s Brian Colello.

Apple sold 48 million iPhones in the September quarter, up 22% from the year-ago quarter. More impressive, iPhone average selling prices rose 2% sequentially to $670, as the firm continues to sell higher-priced "Plus" models and iPhones with increased storage capacity. iPhone unit sales in greater China were up 87% year over year, and Apple saw no major signs of economic deceleration in the region. Total revenue from Other Products was $3.0 billion, up 15% sequentially, which we think only implies modest revenue growth from the Apple Watch. We remain optimistic that the device will take off at some point, especially as customer satisfaction metrics (per Wristly) are encouraging.

Apple's revenue forecast for the December quarter is in the range of $75.5-$77.5 billion, which would represent only 1%-4% year-over-year growth. However, Apple expects its topline to be hindered by more than $5 billion of negative currency effects in the period. On a constant currency basis, Apple foresees 8%-11% growth. Combined with Apple seeing more switchers from Android than at any point during the past three-plus years, we still think that Apple's competitive position remains as strong as ever.

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About the Author

Brian Colello

Equity Strategist
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Brian Colello, CPA, is an equity strategist for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. In addition to leading Morningstar’s technology sector team, he covers semiconductor and hardware companies. Colello was a senior equity analyst before assuming his current role in 2015.

Before joining Morningstar in 2008, he worked in public accounting for KPMG and served as a manager in corporate finance for BMG Music, a subsidiary of Bertelsmann AG.

Colello holds a bachelor’s degree in accounting from Bucknell University and a master’s degree in business administration from Wake Forest. He is also a Certified Public Accountant.

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