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Coke Sees Positive Price and Volume Growth

The beverage behemoth continues to capitalize on its already-strong share position and sizable distribution network even as a strong dollar weighs on reported results, writes Morningstar analyst Adam Fleck.

Wide-moat

We're encouraged that both carbonated and noncarbonated beverages saw positive volume gains in the quarter, with still drinks in particular enjoying a solid 5% growth rate (on top of similar gains in the same period a year ago). Coke enjoyed the strongest growth in its Eurasia and Africa segment, where sparkling beverages climbed 4% and non-carbonated leaped 7%, while still drinks climbed 5% in both Latin America and Asia Pacific. We continue to believe developing and emerging regions offer the highest long-run growth potential given lower per-capita consumption rates and faster-growing economies, and expect Coke to capitalize on its already-strong share position and sizable distribution network in these markets.

Coke's profitability also improved in the quarter after excluding sharply negative currency effects, with adjusted operating margins (excluding productivity and impairment charges) climbing 6% compared with the firm's 4% organic sales growth. Although we expect foreign exchange headwinds to persist for the full year, management's guidance for currency-neutral earnings per share growth in the mid-single-digit range mirrors our forecast.

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About the Author

Adam Fleck

Director of Research, Ratings and ESG
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Adam Fleck is director of research, ratings and ESG, for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.

Before assuming his current role, Fleck was director of equity research, ESG, where he led Morningstar's environmental, social, and governance equity research efforts, including collaboration with Sustainalytics, along with a team of analysts in Chicago and Amsterdam. Previously, he was Morningstar's regional director of equity research in Australia and New Zealand and director of North American consumer equity research. He joined Morningstar in 2006.

Fleck holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated cum laude. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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