The World Over, Good Values Are Harder to Find
The rise in global equity markets during the first quarter has left most of the world overvalued.
Roland Czerniawski: Today, we are taking a look at world valuations through the lens of Morningstar's quantitative price/fair value metric. This chart reflects world valuations at the end of the first quarter of 2015. Here, we can see that world valuations do not appear to be as attractive now as they were last quarter. The United States appears slightly cheaper, being now only 1.1% overvalued compared with 4.3% last quarter. Most valuations abroad, however, have increased rather dramatically. Europe, after implementing its massive quantitative-easing program, had its valuations go up significantly due to the stock market rallies in many of its member states. Germany is now 16.1% overvalued, compared with 4.4% last quarter.
China, which already appeared significantly overvalued last quarter, continued to rally, and it remains the most overvalued country on the chart. Even some of the most deeply undervalued countries from last quarter, like Brazil and Russia, do not appear as attractive now. Brazil is now 2.2% overvalued, and Russia is close to being fairly valued. Interestingly, the only developed nation that is undervalued now is Australia, but only by a small margin of about 2.4%.
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