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Quarter-End Insights

Economic Outlook: More Slow Growth but Labor Scarcity

U.S. real GDP growth in 2015 will likely fall in the 2.0%-2.5% range yet again, but labor tightness is building.

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  • U.S. economic growth is likely to remain lower than many believe, at 2.0% to 2.5%, but high enough to create labor market shortages.
  • The quarter's notable developments were the ECB quantitative easing program (which resulted in a sharply falling euro), weaker growth in China, bad weather (again), and slowing U.S. exports.
  • Threats of labor scarcity are building, helping consumers but potentially sparking higher inflation and lower corporate profits.

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Robert Johnson, CFA does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.