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Basic Materials: China's Investment-Led Growth Model Has Run Its Course

We don't see the recent share price declines for metals and mining producers as a buying opportunity on average.

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  • Despite significant share price declines for metals and mining producers, we believe real value remains relatively scarce, with Vale a notable exception.
  • Global oversupply continues to weigh on the steel market, and material improvement looks to be several years away.
  • Since it looks increasingly likely that the Eastern European potash cartel will reform, we've raised our long-term potash price forecast and fair value estimates for potash producers in our coverage universe.

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Jeffrey Stafford does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.