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Quarter-End Insights

Our Outlook for the Economy

Worldwide central banks are driving the markets, but will fundamentals follow?

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  • An improving U.S. housing market will drive up economic activity during the fourth quarter and in 2013.
  • Equity markets are looking beyond soft market fundamentals to the future benefits of coordinated central bank easing globally.
  • The United States successfully dodges the bullet of softer European and Chinese economies.

During June, just as I was writing my quarterly column, the situation in Europe looked very dismal, and there were many who feared that Europe would drag the rest of the world, including the United States, down with it. Just after the end of the second quarter, a number of pundits went so far as to say we were already in a recession, and we just didn't realize it. Those fears have not come to pass, and it now looks as if U.S. gross domestic product growth in the September quarter will accelerate from the 1.7% of the June quarter and even the 1.9% growth rate registered in the first quarter.

Robert Johnson, CFA does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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