Skip to Content
Stock Strategist

Are Central Banks Moving the Gold Market?

Their purchases hold the key to understanding demand and pricing.

Central bank purchases, particularly from the official sector in emerging economies, have been the largest single driver of higher gold prices during the past five years. This development is particularly notable as central banks had been net sellers of bullion since the 1980s. We believe central banks from emerging economies have been buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, while developed Western countries with large legacy bullion holdings now see gold as a strategic reserve asset and have accordingly halted their gold sales programs. We think gold holds particular appeal for countries with large U.S. dollar holdings, such as China and OPEC member nations, given gold's historically negative correlation to the greenback. We do not believe central bank buying can maintain its current pace over the long haul, which supports our lower long-term gold price forecast of $1,200 per ounce. Still, we see a number of potential scenarios regarding official sector gold demand over the next several years, some of which contemplate accelerated central bank purchases, that could be very bullish for gold prices in the near to intermediate term.

While the spectacular rise in gold prices over the past decade was aided by many forces, we think the biggest single driver has been increased central bank purchases. Before 2010, central banks were major suppliers of gold on a net basis, selling on average more than 400 tons of gold per year between 2000 and 2009. But 2010 marked the first year in which central banks around the world were net purchasers of gold, buying 87 tons of gold that year, and the trend accelerated in 2011 with official sector demand climbing to 440 tons. Global gold demand increased from 3,800 tons in 2000 to 4,067 tons in 2011.

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

  • Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
  • Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
  • Develop and improve features of our offerings.
  • Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.