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Market Update

Stage Set for a Blockbuster December Quarter at Apple

It would be a mistake for investors to view the sequential decline in iPhone sales as an inflection point for Apple's success.

At first glance,  Apple's (AAPL) fiscal fourth-quarter results lacked the upside surprise to which some investors have become accustomed. It would be a mistake, however, for investors to view the sequential decline in iPhone sales as an inflection point for Apple's success. In fact, we believe Apple's December quarter is shaping up to be a blockbuster.

Total revenue was $28.4 billion, up 39% year over year. In contrast to revenue growth that averaged more than 70% during the first three quarters of the year, Apple's sales trajectory clearly decelerated. However, widespread speculation of a new phone release (which occurred last week) drove delays in purchases, causing the iPhone segment, which represents approximately 40% of total revenue, to grow just 25% year over year. In the short time since its release, however, the iPhone 4S is establishing a record sales pace and continues to exceed expectations despite a launch event that received a lukewarm reception. We continue to believe that the capabilities of the new phone, a large base of existing customers ready for renewal, and new price points for existing phones have positioned Apple for tremendous success during the next quarter, which will be 14 weeks long instead of 13 (due to a quirk in Apple's fiscal reporting calendar).

In addition to robust revenue growth, Apple continues to deliver margins above the levels we had anticipated. We still expect gross margin erosion during the next several years as Apple extends its user base by delivering products that can compete at lower price points (typically one-generation-old versions of current technology). However, Apple's guidance for gross margin of approximately 40% during the December quarter is more positive than we had anticipated. This gross margin forecast suggests that handset revenue will continue to dominate lower-margin tablet revenue and that Apple's positioning of the 3GS and 4 iPhones against the 4S does not pose an immediate threat to Apple's margin profile. Our long-term margin expectations are unchanged, but for the near term, we believe Apple will succeed in holding the line on pricing while driving aggressive revenue growth.

Overall, Apple is executing extremely well on the firm's two most important tasks: customer acquisition and customer retention. On acquisition, the iPhone 4S raises the bar for high-end smartphones. Meanwhile, we anticipate strong elasticity of demand for the new, lower price points of the iPhone 3GS and 4, positioning Apple for rapid expansion of its user base. On customer retention, iCloud is a game-changing offering that greatly enhances the connection between Apple's ecosystem and the user. Instead of just a music library, iCloud's photo repository, storage, unified messaging, and seamless integration of all things Apple across multiple devices is what will turn today's iPhone 4S users into tomorrow's iPhone 6 and iPad 5 customers.

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