What's the Right Foreign Allocation?
Understand how to go global without going out on a limb.
Understand how to go global without going out on a limb.
It's a trend we've seen again and again: Investors' enthusiasm for an asset class seems to ebb and flow with the performance of that market segment.
Foreign stocks are no exception. For example, though there are sound fundamental reasons for investing in emerging markets, it's probably not a coincidence that investors have sent scads of new money to diversified emerging-markets stock funds during the past few years. After all, emerging-markets stock funds have returned roughly 15% per year, on average, over the past 10 years, whereas most large-cap U.S. stock funds have gained less than a third of that amount.
But rather than adding to and subtracting from your foreign stake based on market performance, and risk being whipped around by market winds, a better approach is to set a strategic, long-term allocation to foreign stocks and stick with it, making only minor adjustments to rebalance.
Unfortunately, that's easier said than done. Even informed observers vary widely on how much to stake overseas, ranging from the "don't bother" camp to the "all global, all the time" school of thought.
And importantly, classifying foreign and U.S. companies based on where their headquarters are located is evolving into an increasingly questionable exercise, especially for large-cap multinationals. Companies such as Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD) derive more than half of their revenues from overseas, whereas global behemoths such Nestle (NSRGY) and Toyota (TM) count on the U.S. for a big portion of their sales.
The Global Portfolio: A Starting Point
Given the fact that country of domicile doesn't say a lot about where a company actually does business, it's tempting to shelve the foreign versus U.S. allocation question altogether and simply opt for a global markets index fund such as Vanguard Total World Stock Index . That fund simply apportions its assets by market capitalization and lets the largest companies fall where they may. As of its most recently available portfolio, the fund's top 10 holdings included ExxonMobil (XOM) and Apple (AAPL) as well as Nestle and HSBC (HBC).
That's a logical approach, particularly for those who are already index enthusiasts. If you buy into the concept of letting the market decide the size of the holdings in your fund, letting the market decide country weightings is a logical extension of that thought process.
And even if you're not ready to cede complete control of your country allocations by investing in a global stock market index fund, the geographic allocations of the global market provide a good starting point for thinking about your own allocations. As of midyear, the FTSE All-World Index staked about 56% of its assets in foreign stocks while the rest were stateside. Meanwhile, roughly 11% of the global-markets portfolio was classified as emerging markets, while the rest was in developed.
Ask the Experts
Morningstar's Lifetime Allocation Indexes, developed in conjunction with asset-allocation specialist Ibbotson Associates, provide additional intelligence about what's a reasonable foreign/domestic split.
In general, it's worth noting that these benchmarks are much less foreign-stock-heavy than is the case with global market benchmarks such as the FTSE All-World Index. For example, the portfolios geared toward investors who are just starting out steer roughly 40% of their equity assets toward foreign stocks, and those weightings step down dramatically for those nearing and in retirement. For people with 10-15 years until retirement, the indexes' foreign stakes compose roughly 30% of the overall equity allocation and drop to 20%-25% of equity for those who are already retired.
One of the key rationales for a lower foreign-stock allocation in retirement is currency risk. Because foreign assets are not denominated in dollars, there's a chance that foreign currencies could dip as an investor approaches retirement, thereby depressing the purchasing power of a heavily globalized portfolio at an inopportune time. Of course, those currency swings can work the other way, too. But the bottom line is that currency risk is a wild card that's completely out of your control, and you're better off reducing any such risks as retirement draws near.
A checkup of target-date funds' average foreign allocations yields weightings that are in a similar range. However, they differ from the Morningstar Indexes in a few key respects. For investors just starting out (that is, those who plan to retire in 2050 or thereabouts), the foreign-stock weightings are generally lighter, at roughly 30% of equity assets, whereas the Morningstar indexes feature foreign stock weightings around 40%. Moreover, the foreign-stock weightings for the typical target-date fund series remain static, at about 30% of equity, throughout an investor's life cycle. That stands in contrast to the Morningstar Indexes, where the foreign-stock weightings generally decrease as the investor nears retirement.
Benchmarking Foreign Allocations
Retiring 2010 Weighting (% of Equity) Morningstar Lifetime Allocation Index 2010/Moderate 25 Target Date 2000-2010 Average 30Retiring 2025 Weighting (% of Equity) Morningstar Lifetime Allocation Index 2025/Moderate 30 Target Date 2021-2025 Average 31
Retiring 2035 Weighting (% of Equity) Morningstar Lifetime Allocation Index 2035/Moderate 33 Target Date 2031-2035 Average 32
Retiring 2050 Weighting (% of Equity) Morningstar Lifetime Allocation Index 2050/Moderate 38 Target Date 2050+ Average 32
A previous version of this article ran on Nov. 18, 2010.
See More Articles by Christine Benz
New! 30-Minute Money Solutions | ||||
Need help picking up the pieces in this turbulent market? 30-Minute Money Solutions by Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz simplifies the daunting task of getting your financial house in order. Written for novice and experienced investors alike, this book offers manageable, step-by-step solutions for tackling money challenges and building a comprehensive financial plan in simple 30-minute increments. Learn more. | ||||
Order Your Copy Today--$16.95 | ||||
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals
and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through
license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates
asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management.
We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences
and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.