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Market Update

Scary Economic Reports Push Equities One Step Backward

Overshadowing corporate earnings were several economic reports that pointed to a wobbly outlook.

Scary economic reports threw a wet sandbag onto the markets' generally upward march this week. Overshadowing corporate earnings were several economic reports that pointed to a wobbly outlook.

New home sales took a step backward during September, showing a much lower-than-expected annual rate of 402,000. Also, a decline in consumer confidence reflected the persistent public unease about the sluggishness in the job market.

The Morningstar U.S. Market Index fell 4.34% for the week, bringing the year-to-date return to 18%. As investors throttle back their appetite for risk, large-cap stocks loss less than their smaller counterparts. The Morningstar Large Cap Index fell 3.7% and the Morningstar Small Cap Index fell 6.4%.

The difference between growth stocks and value stocks was less than the size difference, but value trounced growth.  Procter & Gamble (PG) gained for the week, as investors fled to the stocks of safer firms. Still, P&G is another example of a firm showing decent earnings despite the recession, and raising guidance for the entire year.

The Morningstar Core Bond Index fell slightly for the week, and has a yield of 3.01%. Gains were across the board. The Morningstar US Government Bond Index lost 0.24% while the Morningstar Corporate Bond Index fell 0.13%. The spread between Treasury and corporate bonds stayed the same. The Morningstar Mortgage Bond Index was up 0.24%, and its yield falls between the government and corporates at 2.91%.

The Morningstar Long-Only Commodity Index fell 2.11%, but has advanced 15.29% over the year. Wheat fell 8% and was one of the biggest contributors to the decline, despite wet conditions and below-average planting. Natural gas continued its decline as well, falling 8.3%. The Morningstar Long/Short Index fell 0.47%, owing in part to the short position in wheat. Unlike the long index, the long/short index took a cash position in place of natural gas, which helped as well.

 Bond Index One-Week Returns (Data as of 10-29-09)

 

1 Wk
Return (%)

Yield Duration
Core Bond -0.07 3.01 4.15
US Government Bond -0.24 2.21 4.89
Corporate Bond -0.13 4.35 5.89
Mortgage Bond 0.13 3.03 2.45

 
 Commodity Index One-Week Returns (Data as of 10-29-09)
  1-Week Return % YTD Return %
Long-Only Commodity -2.11 15.29
Long/Flat Commodity -1.27 2.22
Long/Short Commodity -0.47 -4.09

For more information, call +1 312 384-3735. Daily updates and historical values are available at http://indexes.morningstar.com

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