Berkshire Remains Well-Positioned in Markets--Labor Markets

 Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) total employment rose 7% in 2007 and 6% in 2008. To be sure, these increases were driven in part by acquisitions. Nevertheless, we think Berkshire's employment held up pretty well in 2008 in light of the severe economic downturn and particularly in light of the economic sensitivity of Berkshire's operating companies. We think this resilience helps illustrate the strength of the company's business model.

Insurance operations account for just 10% of total Berkshire employment, and a large share of the subsidiaries' employment is concentrated in industries quite sensitive to any economic slowdown. Looking at the 62 noninsurance operating companies listed in the firm's annual report that were operating in 2006, 2007, and 2008, total employment rose 0.5% in 2007 and then fell 1.5% in 2008. That compares roughly with a 0.8% increase in total United States payroll employment in 2007 and a 2.1% decline in total U.S. employment in 2008. Berkshire's subsidiaries cut back on their employment significantly less than the decline in overall U.S. employment in 2008.

Are these results all that remarkable? During recessions, employment in cyclically sensitive housing and manufacturing sectors falls significantly faster than total employment. We've just had the worst recession since the Great Depression, and U.S. employment in construction and manufacturing establishments fell 6% and 9%, respectively, in 2008. And a large swath of the Berkshire operating company universe is focused on markets sensitive to construction, consumer discretionary spending, and heavy industrial activity.

However, among the 10 largest Berkshire operating companies (by number of employees) in 2006, total employment fell just 1.2% in 2008, a significantly smaller decline than total U.S. employment and a markedly smaller decline than in U.S. construction or manufacturing employment. Berkshire's 10 largest subsidiaries included a carpeting manufacturer, several apparel manufacturers, a manufacturer of modular housing, a metalworking company, a manufacturer of building products, and a manufacturer of recreational vehicles. In other words, the exposure to the economic downturn among this group was clearly marked during our last recession. And total employment in this group represented about two thirds of total employment in the Berkshire stable from 2006 to 2008.

Among the 52 other firms operating under the Berkshire umbrella from 2006 to 2008, whose total employment accounted for about one third of Berkshire's employment in 2006, total employment fell 2%, in line with the national average. That group includes Berkshire's significant interests in the relatively stable utility sector, but scanning the list outside of the utilities suggests a lot of economic sensitivity as well. Those firms include furniture manufacturers, furniture retailers, a large real estate brokerage enterprise, a brick manufacturer, jewelry retailers, metalworking companies, a retailer of candy, and a manufacturer of art frames. But employment in the nonutility subsidiaries in this group fell just 3% in 2008, where one could have expected a result closer to the national averages for construction and manufacturing.

What accounts for the relative resilience of employment in Berkshire? We think there are at least two factors at work. First, as long stressed by Berkshire leaders, the firm focuses its search for acquisitions and investments on economically "moaty" enterprises, firms whose competitive advantages lead to persistently outsized returns on capital. One should expect such firms to perform relatively well during recessions, as their competitive advantages help shield them from the worst threats that recessions can throw at them.

Firms with moats can be found in cyclically sensitive sectors as well as in stable industries. This relates to the second factor we think is operating here. Berkshire's superior overall financial strength helped insulate its operating subsidiaries from stresses facing other firms dependent on stressed capital markets during our latest downturn. Berkshire's financial strength is in part attributable to specific advantages in its organizational architecture. The firm's disciplined investment and underwriting practices help Berkshire's large insurance operations (including reinsurance) develop cash flow characteristics relatively independent of those in the cyclically sensitive operating subsidiaries.

We think the firms in the Berkshire stable responsibly cut back on their employment during the economic downturn, but they also helped shepherd a loyal employee base standing to gain market share during the developing economic recovery. There's a lot of operational leverage in the industrial economy generally right now, given the cutbacks in the past year. But it is also possible to go too far on that score during an economic downturn. The balanced approach within the loyal Berkshire community may well have them positioned in a sweet spot today.