COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Plans Match Our Expectations
We don’t expect any changes to our fair value estimates or moat ratings for the mRNA manufacturers.
The Biden administration has released plans for a third mRNA vaccine booster dose (from Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna) starting in late September. The timeline is largely in line with our expectations, and we don’t expect any changes to our fair value estimates or moat ratings for the mRNA manufacturers. At current stock prices, we view Pfizer, BioNTech, and Moderna as overvalued, with the market likely overly optimistic about the long-term demand for mRNA vaccines.
A booster shot is likely to help with antibody levels and secure strong vaccine sales at Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna through 2022, but in the long run, we expect more limited utilization (focused on higher-risk individuals), competition from new vaccine manufacturers (Sanofi, Glaxo, and others), and the eventual waning of the coronavirus to limit the long-term potential of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine franchises. While the initial series of mRNA vaccines continues to show 90%-plus efficacy in preventing severe disease, efficacy against symptomatic infection has been slowly declining. Both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have early phase 2 data showing that a third dose of their authorized vaccines significantly boosts neutralizing antibody activity against the original strain and variants, including the delta variant. For the rest of 2021, we expect boosters will initially be more focused on higher-risk patient groups (elderly and immunocompromised), with the broader adult population eligible for boosters in 2022. We expect strong vaccine sales for Moderna ($21 billion in 2021 and $22 billion in 2022) and Pfizer/BioNTech ($35 billion in 2021 and $39 billion in 2022), as sales in developing markets and third-dose booster sales to developed markets continue to grow. Beyond 2022, we assume infants and seniors will be target populations, with close to 70% utilization and $8 billion in annual sales. We expect Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna could each see annual sales of roughly $2 billion.
|Morningstar Premium Members gain exclusive access to our full analyst reports, including fair value estimates, bull and bear breakdowns, and risk analyses. Not a Premium Member? Get this and other reports immediately when you try Morningstar Premium free for 14 days.|
Damien Conover does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.