Skip to Content
Stock Analyst Update

Twitter’s $7.5 Billion Revenue Goal Achievable by 2023

We raised our fair value estimate to $52, but shares are still overvalued.


We have raised our fair value estimate of Twitter (TWTR) to $52 from $44. The firm used its analyst day to detail how it has carved a path to accelerate top-line growth, which will likely create further operating leverage in the long run. Twitter has taken steps to scale its platforms, enhance its app for consumers and advertisers, improve its direct response ad capabilities, and invest in other user monetization options, all of which accelerated product improvements or launches, drove user growth, and attracted advertisers, which increased user monetization.

Management appeared confident it can increase its daily user count to at least 315 million and grow revenue to at least $7.5 billion in 2023. While we expect strong user growth, we project slightly less users than what the firm is aiming for. However, we are assuming more effective user monetization, driven by the return of brand advertisers, the continuing growth in demand for direct response advertising, and higher ad returns on investment, or ROIs, on the platform, resulting in revenue slightly above the firm’s goal in 2023. We have increased our average annual growth estimate to 23% from 18% over the next five years. We slightly lowered our margin assumptions and now expect an average operating margin of 12% through 2025, versus our previous 15% assumption, as we think the firm will continue to invest aggressively in product innovation.

Morningstar Premium Members gain exclusive access to our full analyst reports, including fair value estimates, bull and bear breakdowns, and risk analyses. Not a Premium Member? Get this and other reports immediately when you try Morningstar Premium free for 14 days.

Ali Mogharabi does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

  • Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
  • Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
  • Develop and improve features of our offerings.
  • Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.