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Rekenthaler Report

My 2020 Investment Lesson: The Peril of Overconfidence

A little learning is a dangerous thing.

My Belief
On Feb. 19, 2020, the S&P 500 closed at a record high. It then dropped by 34% over the next five weeks.

That loss did not surprise me. By late February 2020, Japan had announced that it would close its schools for the following four weeks. Shortly thereafter, the Italian government locked down one fourth of the country. Clearly, those stoppages were merely the beginning of the economic problems; the rest of the developed world would soon follow suit. Such shutdowns would cause financial carnage.