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We Still Expect a Strong U.S. Economic Recovery

Neither the U.S. election outcome nor the coronavirus third wave will derail it.

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Our view that the U.S. economy would experience a very strong long-run recovery from COVID-19 was far from clear earlier in the year, but it has become the consensus outlook, thanks to several months of strong economic data.

Two main threats have emerged to our optimistic thesis. First, investors are worried that additional stimulus won’t be forthcoming or that the November election outcome could have other negative consequences. However, we think the recovery should be in good shape even without additional stimulus. Vaccines are far more important to our economic view, and we remain optimistic that a successful vaccine will be deployed in the first half of 2021 and allow for a largely complete return to normal.

Preston Caldwell does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.