Can You Predict the Next Downturn?
The longer the time period, the stronger the pattern.
From the Mailbag
A reader asked:
"Looking at current 10-year returns gives me a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach which I have experienced twice before, during the tech bubble and the financial crisis. Is there any data regarding significantly higher 10-year returns being negatively correlated with lower subsequent 10-year returns (like the tech boom followed by the 'lost decade')?"