A Coronavirus Vaccine, or Three, Could Be Available by Year-End

Resurgences in COVID-19 outbreaks have made it clear that ending the pandemic will require more than diagnostics, contact tracing, and social distancing. It will require an effective vaccine and vaccine distribution.

• We’re increasingly bullish that most of the vaccines entering late-stage development in the United States will meet Food and Drug Administration guidelines for approval. We expect the FDA could award three emergency use authorizations for use in high-risk individuals before the end of the year for Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE)/(BNTX), and AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZN), based on interim efficacy data from phase 3 studies. We expect most U.S. adults will be vaccinated in the first half of 2021.
• We think the global COVID-19 vaccine market could surpass $40 billion in 2021, including at least $11 billion in U.S. government contracts at a $24 average price per course.
• We still expect minimal vaccine profit from not-for-profit strategies at AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and minimal long-term valuation impact for Big Pharma in general, given uncertainty surrounding duration of sales.