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A Coronavirus Vaccine, or Three, Could Be Available by Year-End

We expect multiple approved vaccines by early 2021 with wide vaccine distribution in developed markets by mid-2021.

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Resurgences in COVID-19 outbreaks have made it clear that ending the pandemic will require more than diagnostics, contact tracing, and social distancing. It will require an effective vaccine and vaccine distribution.

  • We’re increasingly bullish that most of the vaccines entering late-stage development in the United States will meet Food and Drug Administration guidelines for approval. We expect the FDA could award three emergency use authorizations for use in high-risk individuals before the end of the year for Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer/BioNTech (PFE)/(BNTX), and AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZN), based on interim efficacy data from phase 3 studies. We expect most U.S. adults will be vaccinated in the first half of 2021.
  • We think the global COVID-19 vaccine market could surpass $40 billion in 2021, including at least $11 billion in U.S. government contracts at a $24 average price per course.
  • We still expect minimal vaccine profit from not-for-profit strategies at AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and minimal long-term valuation impact for Big Pharma in general, given uncertainty surrounding duration of sales.

Karen Andersen does not own shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.