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TEXT - Fitch says fiscal cliff could trigger 2 pct decline in GDP
Reuters: Bonds News
Mon, 19 Nov 2012
Nov 19 - The Fiscal Cliff could trigger a second recession, a 2% decline in GDP to flat 0.4% growth, and increased unemployment to upwards of 10%, all which would dramatically affect demand for U.S....
Investors can get a better read on the data by tuning out short-term quirks, understanding when indicators are most reliable, and properly sizing the economic magnitude of each report.
Any deal to avert the fiscal cliff will modestly hit the economy, but legislators won't allow the worst-case scenario--and subsequent recession --to happen, says Northern Trust chief economist Carl Tannenbaum.
Morningstar employment sector analyst Vishnu Lekraj forecasts unemployment ticking higher still but sees an inflection point in the pace of job losses.