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  1. Market Tidbits

    Headlines

    Mon, 22 Sep 2014

    IronHorse Capital Inflation Expectations: Tame Meanwhile, as always, Fed watchers gnashed their teeth over the future Fed Funds rate trajectory and the Fed statement ahead of this week’s meeting. After the meeting, the “dot chart” showing Fed members

  2. Preferred Stock Buyers - Be Sure You're Watching The Right Indicator

    Headlines

    Mon, 22 Sep 2014

    looking for a glimpse of what the future of interest rates looks like, are used to watching Fed announcements regarding the federal funds rate . While doing so was fruitful during the Greenspan Fed years, the post-QE reality faced by today's Fed requires a

  3. Forward Rates Update: Not Dot-ish

    Commentary

    Sun, 21 Sep 2014

    curves established by global dollar investors using real money....which doesn't look much like the Fed dot plot. First Fed funds rate hike to 1/2%: Aug-Sep-2015. Then, 1%: Feb-Mar-2016; 2%: Jan-Feb-2017; 3%: Sep-2018; 4%: maybe

  4. From Barron’s, September 22, 2014 (Part 2)

    Commentary

    Sat, 20 Sep 2014

    prices. On the other hand, the weakness in small-caps [ IWM ] is worry some. The futures market expectations for the fed funds rate are now diverging from the FOMC’s dot-plots . After failed Scottish independence vote, the BOE is free to hike rates. The ECB is on

  5. Inflation Settles, but Not for Everyone

    Headlines

    Sat, 20 Sep 2014

    language that suggested a hike in the Fed funds rate was still off in the distance even ..... maintain the crucial phrase, "keep the federal funds rate low for a considerable period of time ..... package of Fed governor forecasts for the Fed funds rate by year ( see Page 3 of the release

  6. Why the Pennant Race Could Coincide with Market Volatility

    Headlines

    Fri, 19 Sep 2014

    despite the fact that the Fed’s own projection for interest rates – signaled in the so-called “dots” – forecast the federal funds rate at 1.375 percent by the end of 2015, 25 basis points higher than its June forecast of 1.125 percent. Reconciling

  7. Super Regional Banks Earnings To Surprise On Upside: Sterne Agee

    Headlines

    Thu, 18 Sep 2014

    overview of the report: “A part of this [bullish super regional banks] thesis was centered on the prospects of a higher Federal Funds rate in 4Q15 and beyond along with improving and more broad-based loan growth. For those looking to get greater exposure

  8. Time for Fed to Exit Silly Dots!

    Commentary

    Wed, 17 Sep 2014

    between dual mandate goals and short rate policy is consistent with the view of the entire FOMC(!?), what do you think the Fed funds rate will be at the end of each of the next three years? So....individual members are asked to estimate rates based on their

  9. Yellen press conference: Falling UE rate still masking labor market weakness

    Headlines

    Wed, 17 Sep 2014

    hike in July 2015 vs. 71% who thought so one day ago. Putting up a chart of the "dots" Yellen notes the median expected Fed Funds rate at the end of 2016 is just 2.9% - nearly 100 basis points below what is thought to be the "normal" level despite participants

  10. FOMC statement and projections lean hawkish

    Headlines

    Wed, 17 Sep 2014

    the core PCE inflation forecast is cut, now 1.6-1.9% from 1.6-2.0%. 11 out of 17 FOMC members now see the Fed Funds rate at above 1% by the end of 2015. Four of the group see Fed Funds at about 4% by the end of 2016. The bond market is selling

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