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  1. A Treasury Market Disconnect

    Headlines

    Tue, 21 Oct 2014

    start raising its short-term benchmark interest rate (the federal funds rate ) roughly in August of 2015. Our view is that if US economic ..... currently expects. We would expect gradual increases in the Fed funds rate once the Fed does start moving. If you believe the Treasury

  2. Fed “Management By the Dots” Signals New Tightening Cycle

    Headlines

    Fri, 17 Oct 2014

    noteworthy visual takeaway from the September release is the range of forecasts among Fed governors. The dispersion for the Fed Funds rate forecasts expands from a little under 1 percentage point this year to about 3 percentage points in 2015 and 4 in 2016. The views

  3. Bank of America's Execution Impresses Despite Settlement Costs; Raising Fair Value Estimate

    Commentary

    Wed, 15 Oct 2014

    rate increases is difficult to forecast--indeed, futures data from CME Group implies a 43% probability that the target Fed Funds rate will not exceed 0.25% by September 2015. We also note that long-term rates have declined precipitously in recent weeks

  4. Wells Fargo Deepens Its Funding Moat

    Headlines

    Tue, 14 Oct 2014

    increase in net interest margin. However, current futures data from CME Group implies a 43% probability that the target fed funds rate will not exceed 0.25% by September 2015, supporting our cautious outlook. We don't expect to alter our $50 fair value

  5. Wells Fargo Builds on Funding Advantage in 3Q, but Rates and Regulation Limit Earnings Growth

    Commentary

    Tue, 14 Oct 2014

    increase in net interest margin. However, current futures data from CME Group implies a 43% probability that the target fed funds rate will not exceed 0.25% by September 2015, supporting our cautious outlook. We don't expect to alter our $50 fair value

  6. Cost Management Will Be Key for JPMorgan Valuation

    Headlines

    Tue, 14 Oct 2014

    rate increases is difficult to forecast--indeed, futures data from CME group imply a 43% probability that the target Fed Funds rate will not exceed 0.25% by September 2015. In the third quarter, JPMorgan’s net interest income rose from $10.8

  7. Legal Costs Continue at JPMorgan Chase, Supporting Our Cautious Outlook

    Commentary

    Tue, 14 Oct 2014

    rate increases is difficult to forecast--indeed, futures data from CME group imply a 43% probability that the target Fed Funds rate will not exceed 0.25% by September 2015. In the third quarter, JPMorgan’s net interest income rose from $10.8

  8. Dude, Where’s My Duration?

    Headlines

    Thu, 9 Oct 2014

    merely” accommodative implies a 2% fed funds rate . Dude, Where’s My Duration? 1 In an ..... historically, we need to look at the “real” fed funds rate (the nominal fed funds rate less the rate of inflation). Today, with

  9. The Fed in the (Market) Driver’s Seat?

    Headlines

    Thu, 9 Oct 2014

    may begin raising interest rates — specifically, the federal funds rate or short-term target rate — by the end of the first quarter ..... cycles. In addition, the so-called terminal level of the federal funds rate — in other words, the point where the Fed stops hiking — is

  10. Making Sense of the Bond Market

    Headlines

    Wed, 8 Oct 2014

    and long-term yields. This narrowing was partly due to investors’ anticipating the Fed’s intent to increase the federal funds rate in mid-2015. More importantly however, since December 18, 2013, the 30-year TIPS yield declined by half from 1

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