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  1. More On the US P/E


    Tue, 22 Jul 2014

    Debate over the “Shiller CAPE” normalized P/E ratio, popularized by Nobel Prize winning economist Professor Robert Shiller , has been particularly pointed this year. As we’ve discussed in the past, this measure takes the average of

  2. Water And Diamonds, Iron And Gold: The Problem With Commodity Prices


    Tue, 22 Jul 2014

    rediscovery of the relationship in the 1920s. (click to enlarge) (Sources: Roy Jastram's The Golden Constant , Robert Shiller 's data , and Stephan Pfaffenzeller ) (click to enlarge) (Sources: Jastram, Bank of England) Over the short

  3. The Perils of Back-Testing


    Mon, 7 Jul 2014

    such as the higher performance enjoyed by value and momentum stocks, to entire marketplaces. Recent Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller , for example, argues that the U.S. stock market sometimes is irrationally priced. Now the doubters are under attack

  4. One Big Idea


    Thu, 3 Jul 2014

    repriced relative to historical experience. Even after accepting the historical validity and predictive capability of Robert Shiller ’s CAPE (10-year cyclically adjusted P/E ratio), it may be necessary to make adjustments to it, if in fact

  5. Bull Market: Room to Run


    Fri, 27 Jun 2014

    stocks are, is now 19, which is higher than the historical average of roughly 15, as measured by Yale professor Robert Shiller . But it is far below the multiple’s level of 31 in early 2000 , just before the tech bubble popped. There are

  6. The Aborted Recovery


    Tue, 24 Jun 2014

    Such a development is less likely now, as equity prices are overvalued by virtually any measure – Yale Prof. Robert Shiller ’s 10-year price-earnings ratio of 25.9 is far above the 16.5 historical average, for instance – and

  7. Why Buying A House Is A Terrible Investment


    Sun, 15 Jun 2014

    By Kyle Fishman : Yale economist Robert Shiller , one of the world's most respected experts on the study of home values, analyzed home prices over the last century and discovered

  8. Looking to Beat the Market?


    Sat, 14 Jun 2014

    University, British financial consultant Andrew Smithers and Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller —have demonstrated that over extended periods investors could have produced above-average returns by increasing

  9. Will a Rise in Rates See a More Lasting Shift to Quality?


    Mon, 28 Apr 2014

    contrarian in me. You can only imagine how pleased I was, then, to read the following excerpt from an interview with Robert Shiller , a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University, in the spring 2014 Wall Street Journal Money magazine. When

  10. Investing for Retirement: The Defined Contribution Challenge


    Wed, 16 Apr 2014

    Data used in Chart 9 are from Robert Shiller ’s website (http://www ..... used in Charts 10-15 are from Robert Shiller ’s website (http://www ..... Data used in Chart 16 are from Robert Shiller ’s website (http://www

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