Oil Gains on Forecast of Cold Weather
By Stephanie Yang
Oil prices edged above $60 a barrel Friday, trading at fresh two-year highs on the last trading day of 2017.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $60.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for its highest close since 2015. Brent, the global benchmark, gained 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $66.55 a barrel.
The market has been buoyed by dwindling crude inventories, as investors have been reassured by a steadily shrinking global glut.
On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude stockpiles fell to the lowest level since October 2015 in the week ended Dec. 22. U.S. stockpiles declined for the sixth consecutive week last week, according to EIA data.
"The inventory trends have been very bullish," said Kyle Cooper, a consultant with ION Energy Group. "I suspect that continues early into the new year."
In November, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with a group of other major producers outside the cartel including Russia, agreed to extend a deal to cap production through 2018. The original deal, struck in late 2016, has helped ease global inventory levels and spurred an oil market rally in the second half of the year.
EIA data also showed that U.S. oil production saw its first weekly drop since October, declining by 35,000 a day from a record high the previous week. The number helped ease some concerns about a surge in shale production undermining the oil market's recovery.
Meanwhile, global economic growth has pushed expectations for oil demand higher. The International Energy Agency forecasts that oil demand rose by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2017, and will increase further in 2018 by 1.3 million barrels a day.
"The economies look pretty good, demand is decent. We kind of need the supply," Mr. Cooper said.
Refiners have helped chip away at excess crude supply by turning it into products such as gasoline and diesel. As temperatures have dropped across the U.S., analysts said fuel consumption should also rise.
"We're seeing a response to the weather, no question. This is an old-school rally in the diesel and heating oil market," said Andy Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group. "The expectation is the much colder than normal weather should spur demand."
However, analysts warn that oil's gains may reverse after traders return from the long holiday weekend and trading volumes pick up. Net bullish bets by speculative investors remain near all-time highs, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
"It didn't tickle our fancy too much," John Macaluso, a trader at Tyche Capital Advisors, said of the recent move. "We still think there's more risk to the downside than anything."
Gasoline futures rose 0.1% to $1.7944 a gallon and diesel futures gained 1.2% to $2.0757 a gallon
Alison Sider contributed to this article.
Write to Stephanie Yang at firstname.lastname@example.org
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 29, 2017 12:40 ET (17:40 GMT)Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.