Press Release: NMI(R) at 57.4%; November Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R)
NMI(R) at 57.4%; November Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R)
Business Activity Index at 61.4%; New Orders Index at 58.7%; Employment Index at 55.3%
TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 5, 2017
TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 5, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 95th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R) .
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management(R) (ISM(R) ) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI(R) registered 57.4 percent, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than the October reading of 60.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 61.4 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the October reading of 62.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 100th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in November. The New Orders Index registered 58.7 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.8 percent in October. The Employment Index decreased 2.2 percentage points in November to 55.3 percent from the October reading of 57.5 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 2 percentage points from the October reading of 62.7 percent to 60.7 percent, indicating prices increased in November for the sixth consecutive month. According to the NMI(R) , 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The rate of growth has lessened in the non-manufacturing sector after two very strong months of growth. Comments from the survey respondents indicate that the economy and sector will continue to grow for the remainder of the year."
The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in November -- listed in order -- are: Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Public Administration; Information; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The only industry reporting contraction in November is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
-- "Domestic business is strong, with positive growth indicators for 2018 from both internal sources and client feedback." (Management of Companies & Support Services) -- "Construction labor continues to be constrained in the West." (Construction) -- "Steady; no material changes." (Finance & Insurance) -- "We continue to struggle with understanding the [potential] changes to the Affordable Care Act, and are trying to be flexible in how we respond. Also, Hurricane Maria has affected some of our pharmaceutical supplies." (Health Care & Social Assistance) -- "Mixed bag of goods for November 2017. Typical seasonal increases for specific braising cuts of beef as the holidays approach. Some volatility on produce items such as brussel sprouts. Expect cream to spike due to holiday season." (Accommodation & Food Services) -- "Business seems to be leveling off. Attribute this to the holiday season that is approaching." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services) -- "Business is strong, but not as strong as Q3." (Retail Trade) -- "Bookings would suggest a strong run to the end of the year." (Wholesale Trade) ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM(R) MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* NOVEMBER 2017 Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing Series Series Percent Rate Series Series Index Index Point of Trend** Index Index Percent Point Nov Oct Change Direction Change (Months) Nov Oct Change NMI(R) /PMI(R) 57.4 60.1 -2.7 Growing Slower 95 58.2 58.7 -0.5 Business Activity/ Production 61.4 62.2 -0.8 Growing Slower 100 63.9 61.0 +2.9 New Orders 58.7 62.8 -4.1 Growing Slower 100 64.0 63.4 +0.6 Employment 55.3 57.5 -2.2 Growing Slower 45 59.7 59.8 -0.1 Supplier Deliveries 54.0 58.0 -4.0 Slowing Slower 23 56.5 61.4 -4.9 Inventories 54.5 52.5 +2.0 Growing Faster 8 47.0 48.0 -1.0 Prices 60.7 62.7 -2.0 Increasing Slower 6 65.5 68.5 -3.0 Backlog of Orders 51.5 53.5 -2.0 Growing Slower 10 55.0 55.0 0.0 New Export Orders 57.0 60.0 -3.0 Growing Slower 10 56.0 56.5 -0.5 Imports 52.5 52.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 6 54.5 54.0 +0.5 Inventory Sentiment 56.0 61.0 -5.0 Too High Slower 246 N/A N/A N/A Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.5 43.5 +2.0 Overall Economy Growing Slower 100 Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 95
*Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R) data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R) data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Cheese (3); Copper Products (4); Corrugated Boxes (7); #1 Diesel Fuel (6); #2 Diesel Fuel (4); Fuel (5); Gasoline (4); Labor -- Construction (9); Lumber Products (5); Natural Gas; Paper; Paper Products; Plastic Products; and Steel Products* (2).
Commodities Down in Price
Bacon (3); Butter; Dairy Products (2); and Steel Products*.
Commodities in Short Supply
Integrated Circuits; IV Solutions (4); Groundwood; Labor (4); Labor -- Construction (20); and Labor --Temporary (3).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
NOVEMBER 2017 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
NMI(R) In November, the NMI(R) registered 57.4 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 60.1 percent registered in October, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 95th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.
An NMI(R) above 48.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the November NMI(R) indicates growth for the 100th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 95th consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI(R) and the overall economy indicates that the NMI(R) for November (57.4 percent) corresponds to a 3.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."
Month NMI(R) Month NMI(R) Nov 2017 57.4 May 2017 56.9 Oct 2017 60.1 Apr 2017 57.5 Sep 2017 59.8 Mar 2017 55.2 Aug 2017 55.3 Feb 2017 57.6 Jul 2017 53.9 Jan 2017 56.5 Jun 2017 57.4 Dec 2016 56.6 Average for 12 months -- 57.0 High -- 60.1 Low -- 53.9
ISM(R) 's Business Activity Index registered 61.4 percent in November, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the October reading of 62.2 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 100th consecutive month. Fourteen industries reported increased business activity and two industries reported decreased activity for the month of November. Comments from respondents include: "More optimism in marketplace" and "Business has increased this past month in advance of the holiday season."
The 14 industries reporting growth of business activity in November -- listed in order -- are: Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Information; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in business activity in November are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.
Business Activity %Higher %Same %Lower Index Nov 2017 32 57 11 61.4 Oct 2017 34 53 13 62.2 Sep 2017 37 49 14 61.3 Aug 2017 32 52 16 57.5
ISM(R) 's Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index registered 58.7 percent, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the October reading of 62.8 percent. November represents growth in new orders for the 100th consecutive month, at a slower rate compared with October. Comments from respondents include: "People are trying to spend their budgets before our fiscal year-end in December" and "New business gained."
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December 05, 2017 10:15 ET (15:15 GMT)Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.