Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its Adobe Digital Index 2013 Online Shopping Forecast for this year’s holiday season. Despite the shortest shopping season since 2002, Adobe predicts record growth for online sales on Thanksgiving with $1.1 billion and Black Friday with $1.6 billion, increases of 21 and 17 percent, respectively. Consumers are also expected to spend more than $2.27 billion online this Cyber Monday, up 15 percent year-over-year (YoY). With only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the data also shows that the late start could cost retailers $1.5 billion in potential sales.
The forecast is based on the analysis of nearly half a trillion visits to more than 2000 retail websites over the last seven years. In addition, 72 percent of online sales from the top 500 U.S. retailers* are generated by companies using Adobe Analytics, a key component of Adobe Marketing Cloud. The large market share made it possible for Adobe to successfully predict spending within one percent in 2012, one of the most accurate forecasts of its kind in the industry.
“Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will all enjoy record online sales,” said Brad Rencher, senior vice president, Digital Marketing Business, Adobe. “Thanksgiving Day sales are projected to surpass $1 billion and could overtake Black Friday within the next five years. The growing importance of Thanksgiving Day, the shortened holiday season and the growing role of mobile and social will make 2013 a very different shopping season than ever before.”
An Adobe survey done in conjunction with this year’s Digital Index Online Shopping Forecast shows that consumers are motivated to shop online primarily by the search for good deals, followed closely by the allure of free shipping. The survey is based on input from 400 consumers who plan to spend at least some of their budget online this year. Survey results and additional predictions from the report include:
About Adobe Digital Index
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous and aggregated data from over 5,000 major companies worldwide that use Adobe Marketing Cloud to obtain actionable data and analysis of activity on their websites. The 2013 Online Shopping Forecast’s margin of error is two percent with a 90 percent confidence level. The forecast's methodology and degree of accuracy has been evaluated and verified by b3Intelligence, an independent analytics and research service provider. For the full report and additional insights, visit here.
About Adobe Systems Incorporated
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more information, visit www.adobe.com.
© 2013 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
*Adobe used Internet Retailer’s list of the top 500 U.S. retailers.
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