11-5-13 11:01 AM EST | Email Article

Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its Adobe Digital Index 2013 Online Shopping Forecast for this year’s holiday season. Despite the shortest shopping season since 2002, Adobe predicts record growth for online sales on Thanksgiving with $1.1 billion and Black Friday with $1.6 billion, increases of 21 and 17 percent, respectively. Consumers are also expected to spend more than $2.27 billion online this Cyber Monday, up 15 percent year-over-year (YoY). With only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the data also shows that the late start could cost retailers $1.5 billion in potential sales.

The forecast is based on the analysis of nearly half a trillion visits to more than 2000 retail websites over the last seven years. In addition, 72 percent of online sales from the top 500 U.S. retailers* are generated by companies using Adobe Analytics, a key component of Adobe Marketing Cloud. The large market share made it possible for Adobe to successfully predict spending within one percent in 2012, one of the most accurate forecasts of its kind in the industry.

“Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will all enjoy record online sales,” said Brad Rencher, senior vice president, Digital Marketing Business, Adobe. “Thanksgiving Day sales are projected to surpass $1 billion and could overtake Black Friday within the next five years. The growing importance of Thanksgiving Day, the shortened holiday season and the growing role of mobile and social will make 2013 a very different shopping season than ever before.”

An Adobe survey done in conjunction with this year’s Digital Index Online Shopping Forecast shows that consumers are motivated to shop online primarily by the search for good deals, followed closely by the allure of free shipping. The survey is based on input from 400 consumers who plan to spend at least some of their budget online this year. Survey results and additional predictions from the report include:

  • Mobile: Mobile optimized retailers will transact more than 20 percent of their sales via smartphones and tablets, a 47 percent increase YoY. The average retailer can expect only 14 percent of mobile-driven online revenue, a 40 percent increase YoY. Mobile devices will be leveraged even while consumers are in a retailer’s physical store, with nearly four in ten consumers reporting that they have shopped online while in a store.
  • Social Media: While Adobe is predicting that only two percent of purchases will come directly from social media sites including Facebook, YouTube, Pinterest and Twitter, social continues to play a more significant role earlier in the purchasing journey. Thirty-six percent of consumers stated that they will turn to social media when making their purchase decision.
  • Spending: The majority of consumers expect to spend the same amount in 2013 as they did last year, but online shopping continues to take a bigger share. Consumers report being most likely to shop online for apparel and accessories, followed closely by books, music, videos, and toys and hobby items.
  • Showrooming: In store price checking, commonly referred to as showrooming, will become the norm. Thirty five percent of 18-34 year olds already leverage mobile devices to compare prices while in stores, well above the 22 percent average.

About Adobe Digital Index

Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous and aggregated data from over 5,000 major companies worldwide that use Adobe Marketing Cloud to obtain actionable data and analysis of activity on their websites. The 2013 Online Shopping Forecast’s margin of error is two percent with a 90 percent confidence level. The forecast's methodology and degree of accuracy has been evaluated and verified by b3Intelligence, an independent analytics and research service provider. For the full report and additional insights, visit here.

Helpful Links

About Adobe Systems Incorporated

Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more information, visit www.adobe.com.

© 2013 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

*Adobe used Internet Retailer’s list of the top 500 U.S. retailers.

Add a Comment

News   More...

Start Premium Trial Register For Free

P F Fund Financial Data (13,000+ funds)
P F Stock Financial Data (7,000+ stocks)
P F Stock and Fund Screeners (basic)
P F Investing Articles and Market Commentary
P F Articles Archive (>30 days)
P F Discuss (dozens of stock, fund, bond, and general bulletin boards)
P F Portfolio Manager (basic)
P F Morningstar Investment Classroom
P F Access Your Portfolio Anytime, Anywhere via Your Mobile Device
P   Morningstar Fund Analyst Reports (full research on 1,700 funds, ETFs, and CEFs)
P   Morningstar Stock Analyst Reports (full research on more than 1,100 stocks)
P   Portfolio Manager (advanced with 10 X-Ray analyses, including recommendations)
P   Portfolio Monitor (monthly and on-demand personalized portfolio statements)
P   Morningstar Proprietary Stock Information (stock star ratings, buy/sell prices, economic moat ratings, and more)
P   Morningstar 5-Star Stock and Fund Favorites & Red Flags eNewsletters
P   Premium Stock and Fund Screeners (advanced with nearly infinite ways to find the best securities for you)
P   Discounts on Morningstar newsletters, books, seminars, and more

Sign-up to Morningstar


Basic Access

Articles and Videos
Morningstar video reports, articles, data, and tools. Dig into our lineup of e-newsletters and investing classroom courses outlining sensible strategies for maximizing your investments.
Morningstar Discuss
Follow the buzz on individual stocks or fund families. Plus, read the latest posts from Morningstar members and analysts.
Portfolio Manager
Track your investments and watch lists with our Portfolio Manager. Customize your view with our comprehensive stock, fund, and ETF data.

Access these features and more when you sign up for Free Membership.
Join Morningstar today. It's Free.

Unlimited Access

Analyst Research
Gather in-depth, actionable insight on over 3,700 stock and mutual funds covered by Morningstar analysts. View our mutual fund Analyst Reports favored by professionals, savvy experienced investors, and new investors researching options for retirement savings, college plans, or other investment needs.
Portfolio X-Ray®
Ensure your portfolio is positioned exactly how you want with Morningstar's X-Ray Interpreter and Stock Intersection tools. A Barron's "Best of the Web" award winner for five years running, X-Ray Interpreter goes under the hood of your portfolio to provide a useful allocation, sector, and geographic analysis. And you can discover how much of a stock you really own, individually and through mutual funds, with Stock Intersection.
Investment Picks
Find new 5-star stocks (greatly undervalued companies) to consider daily. Our 5-star stock rating is a proven winner, consistently beating benchmarks like the S&P 500. Plus, browse our Fund Analyst Picks and Stewardship Grades to find shareholder-friendly mutual funds that are poised for outperformance.
Portfolio Monitor
Get a clear view of your investments with personalized reports about your portfolio. Receive monthly statements and generate reports on-demand to help you stay on track to meet your investment goals.

Access these features and more when you sign up for Premium Membership.
Start your free 14-day trial today online
Your subscription may be tax deductible. Please contact your tax advisor.

Content Partners
Morningstar - - Adobe Predicts Thanksgiving to Soon Surpass Black Friday in Online Sales; Cyber Monday to Break All Records
Name |  Ticker |  Star Rating |  Market Cap |  Stock Type |  Sector |  Industry Star Rating |  Investment Style |  Total Assets |  Category |  Top Holdings |  Top Sectors |  Symbol |  Title Star Rating |  Category |  Total Assets |  Top Holdings |  Top Sectors |  Symbol |  Name Topic |  Sector |  Key Indicators |  User Interest |  Market Cap |  Industry Name |  Ticker |  Star Rating |  Market Cap |  Stock Type |  Sector |  Industry Star Rating |  Investment Style |  Total Assets |  Category |  Top Holdings |  Top Sectors |  Symbol / Ticker |  Title Star Rating |  Category |  Total Assets |  Symbol / Ticker |  Name Title |  Date |  Author |  Collection |  Popularity |  Interest Title |  Date |  Company |  Symbol |  Interest |  Popularity Title |  Date |  Company |  Symbol |  Interest |  Popularity Title |  Date |  Author |  Collection |  Interest |  Popularity

Previous: Adobe posts lower profit; revenue beats estimates  |  Next: Adobe Primetime Powers TV Across Screens For Turner Broadcasting