Joy Global Inc JOY
Q1 2013 Earnings Call Transcript
Transcript Call Date 02/27/2013

Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Joy Global Inc. Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jim Sullivan, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

James M. Sullivan - EVP and CFO: Thank you. Good morning and welcome to everyone. Thank you for participating in today's conference call and for your continued interest in our Company. Joining me on the call this morning is Mike Sutherlin, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ted Doheny, President and Chief Operating Officer of the Underground business; Randy Baker, President and Chief Operating Officer of our Surface business; and finally Sean Major, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary.

This morning I will begin with some brief comments on our results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2013. Mike Sutherlin will then provide an overview of our operations and our market outlook. After Mike's comments we will conduct a question-and-answer session. During this session we ask that you to limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up question before going back into of the queue. This will allow us to accommodate as many questioners as possible.

During the call today we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements should be considered along with the various risk factors detailed in our press release and other SEC filings. We encourage you to read and become familiar with these risk factors. We may also refer to a number of non-GAAP measures, which we believe are important to understanding our business. For a reconciliation of non-GAAP metrics to GAAP, as well as for other investor information, we refer you to our website at www.joyglobal.com.

Now, let's spend a few moments reviewing first quarter results. Bookings of $1 billion in the current quarter were down 29% versus the year ago period. Orders for original equipment were down 36% and aftermarket orders were down 22%. The decline in new order bookings was comprised of a 25% increase for our Surface Mining Equipment and a 27% decrease for Underground Mining machinery inclusive of the full quarter results of IMM.

The prior year quarter contained only one month of IMM results. Excluding IMM, Underground Mining machinery orders were down 33%. The 25% decrease in Surface Mining Equipment bookings reflects the drop from the record first quarter of 2012 and includes a 34% decrease in original equipment orders and an 18% decrease in aftermarket bookings.

Prior year bookings reflected increases across all geographies on a more optimistic outlook for commodities in the economy. Surface Mining original equipment and aftermarket bookings in the first quarter of 2013 decreased year-over-year in all markets. Current quarter aftermarket bookings reflect a lower order rate typical of the seasonally slower first quarter as well as a decrease in customer lead times on orders as they continue to carefully manage operating costs and capital spending.

The 27% decrease in Underground Mining machinery bookings was comprised of a 30% decrease in original equipment orders and a 24% decline in aftermarket bookings. The original bookings decline compared to the first quarter of 2012 is due to a structurally smaller U.S. core market and orders for longwall systems in Australia and the U.S. which did not repeat in 2013.

Excluding these longwall system orders in 2012. Underground original equipment would've been flat. Although the reduction in aftermarket bookings occurred across all regions, the majority of the decrease was in China due to the early Lunar New Year holiday and lower production and rebuild activity in central Appalachian region of the U.S.

Backlog fell to $2.4 billion from $2.6 billion at the beginning of the fiscal year. Net sales increased by 1% in the first quarter with Surface Mining Equipment shipments up 14%, substantially offset by underground mining machinery revenue decreases of 8%. As previously mentioned, our current results include a full quarter of IMM activity, while the prior year quarter contained only one month.

Original equipment shipments for surface mining increased 25%, while underground mining original equipment sales decreased 26%, excluding incremental sales from IMM of $47 million. Aftermarket shipments of surface mining and equipment increased 6%, while shipments of back to market Underground Mining Equipment decreased 6% compared to last year. Surface aftermarket sales increased in all regions except the U.S. and China, while the underground aftermarket sales decrease was largely in the U.S. and was partially offset by increases realized in China, Australia and South Africa. Operating profit excluding unusual items totaled $219 million in the current quarter, which exceeded last year by $5 million. Return on sales in both periods was approximately 19% with year-over-year incremental profitability at 34%. The increase in operating profit was due to the inclusion of a full quarter of IMM results as lower SG&A expenses were more than offset by higher period costs primarily from lower overhead absorption in our U.S. Manufacturing facilities.

Unusual items in the quarter included $1 million of restructuring costs as we continue to rationalize our operations in light of current market conditions. In total we expect restructuring costs for the year to approximate $25 million which is consistent with the guidance coming out of our fourth quarter of 2012. In addition, during the first quarter we finalized our purchase accounting for IMM. This resulted in a one-time gain of $4 million for excess purchase accounting amortization as our preliminary estimates in 2012 were more conservative than the amounts finalized this quarter.

With regard to IMM, as discussed in the fourth quarter we have accelerated our technology, manufacturing and supply chain integration activities to address competitive pressures in China. The IMM team has made good progress this quarter on a number of fronts and we have begun to see some underlying improvement in the business. Similar to our LeTourneau business last year, the integrated Joy Underground Mining and IMM operations will be difficult to separate in future periods and therefore this will be the last quarter we will report the operating results of IMM.

It's time to put to rest the questions regarding the integrity of the financials reported by IMM. We believe the internal and external financial and operational audits and fitness reviews performed in IMM before, during and subsequent to our acquisition provide a high level of comfort, but the reported results for this business are accurate.

Returning back to the financials, the effective income tax rate was 31% in the current quarter compared to 27.9% in the first quarter of 2012. The prior-year quarter included $4 million of net favorable discrete tax benefits and $2 million of permanent tax differences arising from the share gain and acquisition cost associated with the IMM transaction. The effective income tax rate excluding discrete items and the permanent tax differences would have been 31% in the first quarter of 2012. Excluding discrete items, the Company currently expects its effective tax rate for 2013 to be in the range of 30.5% to 31.5%.

Income from continuing operations totaled $142 million or $1.33 per fully diluted share in both the current and prior-year quarter. Excluding unusual items, which resulted in net gains in both periods, fully diluted earnings per share increased $0.05 to a $1.31 in the first quarter of 2013.

Cash from continuing operations in the quarter totaled $92 million, up a $106 million compared to the first quarter of 2012. Trade related working capital in the current quarter resulted in $58 million of cash generation, while working capital in the prior year period was a usage of cash of a similar amount. Capital expenditures in the current quarter totaled $55 million, up $6 million versus the prior year quarter. Expenditures in the first quarter of 2013 were focused on completing the Company's capacity expansion in China and the continued build-out of the Company's aftermarket surface infrastructure. The Company continues to expect full-year capital expenditures of approximately $200 million.

Let me stop now and turn the discussion over to Mike Sutherlin. Mike?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Thank you Jim. Let me just add m welcome to all of those on this call. It was another quarter defined by strong execution and continued market challenges. Our execution is important because it provides a solid foundation for implementing program to streamline our business and reduce our cost base in addressing the more challenging market that we see. So let me start with the market since that's what drives our strategy and determines our operating decisions.

We're seeing improvement in a number of tangible statistics that are key industry parameters. After declining for much of 2012 the year-over-year growth in China electricity production reached the turning point in September and this has improved consistently for the last four months. Similarly year-over-year growth in China steel production increased steadily during the last five months of the year after bottoming in August.

In addition residential construction, the U.S. has been improving for the past several months. Non-residential construction is pushing up equipment rental rates, and industrial production finished the year at a nine month high. These are admittedly early signs, but the increasing number of them, add to the confidence that the market is headed toward a turning point. At this same time there has been a significant destocking of commodities in key markets.

The research into steel production in China dropped iron ore inventories from over 90 million ton run rate to just 74 million tons by year end, while imports reached record levels.

Metallurgical coal inventories at the mills dropped from 31 to just 19 days over the same period. Finished steel inventories held by traders in China dropped to a three year low in December and steel inventories in key consuming regions ended last year below their 2010 levels. Finally the strong increase in electricity production in China dropped inventories at the generating plants from 31 to 18 days by December against record levels of imports. The restocking will add to demand pressures.

The U.S. coal market is another positive, at least on a relative basis. The 14% year-over-year decline in coal production in the first half of 2012 narrowed to 3% in the fourth quarter. U.S. coal generation actually increased year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Almost 70 million tons of annualized production cuts by the largest mining companies helped the market make significant progress towards stabilization. It's also a part of the structural change underway in the U.S. coal market. Some of that closed production is being displaced by increased production in the Illinois Basin with more to come. Part of the restructuring plans we previously announced will adjust our U.S. footprint to new market opportunities.

The production cuts were primarily Underground and therefore have reduced Underground volumes by 16%. The decline in the aftermarket from our U.S. Underground business has been even greater due to customer destocking of parts they hold at mine site and increasing the time between rebuilds. The good news is that the U.S. orders have bottomed and we are up slightly this quarter. Although, we expect in our planning for the U.S. coal market to remain structurally smaller, we believe there's still some opportunities.

U.S. power generators are expected to burn up to 50 million more tons of coal this year as natural gas prices continue to move towards supply replacement levels, which we believe reaches above the $4.50 to $5.00 range. Drilling rigs targeting natural gas were cut by almost half as gas prices dropped to record lows last April. But more importantly, they did not budge even as natural gas prices moved above $3.50 per million BTUs.

Coal-fired generation operated at 55% capacity utilization in 2012 and coal burn could increase by 40 million tons to 60 million tons if capacity utilization increased to 73%, which was the average for 2007.

There are new management teams with new mandates at many of our customers, but all customers are adjusting to new expectations. They are not only changing their decision criteria from volumes to returns, but they also prefer lower risk projects. To make returns, projects can no longer assume rising commodity prices and new mines need to come on line in the lower half of the global cost curve.

High risk high return projects are out in favor of predictable returns. Customers now prefer brownfield expansions and new mines in proximities in current operations because these provide known geology and leverage from existing infrastructure.

This process has slowed decisions across the board and we assume slippage of even top priority projects. This has substantially slowed the deployment of capital in projects. A number of research reports are projecting minor CapEx down 10% to 20% over 2013 and 2014, and that may be the case on the basis of announced budgeted CapEx, but the rate of deployment is running substantially behind those numbers. Based on capital allocated to the projects we tracked deployment is down 40%, maybe more. As a result, we're expecting the deployment of CapEx to improve just to get to the reduced budgeted levels. The re-racking of the projects is resulting in a significant change to our prospect list. This is a list of major projects that we expect to reach equipment selection in the next 12 months. Based on the new criteria, many projects have been moved out beyond the tracking horizon. However, they're being replaced by new projects. To give some insight on how the list is changing we have seen deferral of a copper project even though copper has the strongest fundamentals on our major commodities. This is not a project subject to permitting delays.

Conversely, we have a number of new brownfield expansions that are looking for near-term deliveries, and the work we've done on reducing cycle time gives us an advantage on these opportunities. There are enough new projects being added to the list to offset the deferrals, and our list has stabilized this quarter after four quarters of sequential decline. As a result, the quality of the projects on our list has become significantly better. Although there is an increasing number of positive signs in the market, it's not all one sided and they're also trouble waters to navigate. Commodity prices and supply surplus are issues, as our customers look for better returns.

Copper has the best incentive level pricing of all the major commodities, and the deferral I just sighted is an example that customers are being increasingly selective and patience. The increased steel production is raising prices for iron ore and metallurgical coal, but those prices do not keep all production in the money. Thermal coal has the greatest supply surplus, with pricing generally above cash cost, but not total cost. In all cases our customers need demand increases to work down supply surpluses and raise prices and therefore we will wait before committing.

The relatively quick downturn in aftermarket orders that we saw this quarter was primarily due to timing but it is still a strong reminder that it could be rough for a while longer before it starts to get better. We have addressed the main issues affecting the aftermarket in the press release and I will not recover that ground. However, it confirms how challenging it is to maintain traction in current market conditions. The aftermarket will improve from here but possibly not fast enough to finish the year with year-over-year growth. In the meantime we will focus on restructuring to take costs out.

I want to point out that these programs are not just focused on adjusting to current conditions but more importantly on lowering our ongoing cost base and increasing our leverage to the upside. Some of the restructuring will downsize and reposition our U.S. Underground business. We are also consolidating our manufacturing footprint to improve process flow and efficiencies. Our One Joy Global initiative will enable us to combine similar products and technologies into centers of excellence for components such as gearing in transmissions, for controls in automation and for structural fabrications. This focus on process improvement and cost reductions will not restrict our ability to respond to upside opportunities. In fact it will improve our response and our leverage.

So what does that mean for our outlook? We do not expect the market factors to materially impact our revenues for 2013 to the upside or the downside and our restructuring programs remain on track. As a result we are reconfirming our prior guidance for 2013 of earnings between $5.75 and $6.35 per share on revenues of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. This includes $25 million of planned restructuring costs this year with resulting savings not realized until 2014.

So with that overview, I will turn the call back to Margarita for questions.

Transcript Call Date 02/27/2013

Operator: Andy Kaplowitz, Barclays Capital.

Andy Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital: Mike, I just want to understand your base order comment in the release, you talked about it being flat from 1Q levels. Do you mean you think you could do about $1 billion in orders and then you would add some improvement from the aftermarket, maybe $100 million or so each quarter? Then you could win a couple larger awards on top of that. I just want to understand what you are thinking there?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Our base order rate which we define as excluding major projects. Since the second quarter of last year, it sort of bumped around the $1.1 billion level, sometimes it's a little bit below; sometimes it's a little bit above. We had a couple of projects in the first quarter of last year that moved that number up. We had a couple of projects we booked in the fourth quarter of last year that moved that number up. So if you'd look at the second quarter of last year, the third quarter of last year and then you look at the first quarter of this year, with a little bit of seasonal adjustment, you will see those numbers to be relatively flat. So we look at that as indicative of what the base of the business is under current market conditions. Then we look at the major projects, not every machine we sell, but we look at major projects and the timing of those and we see the base order rate under current market conditions continuing to be pretty flat as we look out through 2013. But we do have a couple of projects that we feel very comfortable with. There could be a couple of more in the back half of the year based on timing. Some things are moving into the prospect list that are giving us some positive indicators, but we haven't vetted those enough to know how solid those are, those are still back half of the year. It doesn't take a lot of timing in the back half of the year to slip into next year, so if you put all that together we feel pretty comfortable that we can – that our order rates are going to be consistent with what we expected going into the year, we still believe that. We think the order rates are probably going to be pretty close to the revenue rates for the year with those projects added in.

Andy Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital: That's helpful Mike, then last quarter we asked you about '14, and I know it's early, it was even earlier last quarter, but you know we're going to ask you again. So, given what you've seen this quarter and the aftermarket especially being a bit weak, do you still have confidence in level revenue forecast for '14 versus '13? Is that still the best guess right now? Because your order rate would have to pick up pretty materially, you'd have to win a couple of the larger projects, it seems to me to get there for '14?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: A couple of comments. One, we don't or I don't put too much into the current dip we've seen in the aftermarket. It is a factor for the first quarter, but some of that stuff is just not sustained, while we have mission critical equipment, people can being to squeeze down on operating budgets by reducing their parts replenishment, but there's a very limited life in doing that rebuilds. We know that rebuild is going to be stretched a bit, but we also know that there is a limit to how much they can be stretched and we also know that the value or the cost of rebuild goes up at the same time. So there is no money to be saved, there is just money to be deferred. So we are not looking at 2013 and 2014 as being down because of a change in our outlook for the aftermarket. As we look at projects as I said, we feel more confident that there are new projects on the list that are under new decision criteria more likely to go forward. We have to get an increase in projects just to get to the bottom end of the CapEx range that our customers are working with. So with that we do expect the markets to slowly start to improve as we go through 2013 which will help our booking rates and which we need to be able to maintain level revenues in 2014. If you look at what we have done in the last few quarters, our book to bill has not been 1, much less over 1. So we do need to have some of those projects come in and we do need to see some improvement in the booking rates in the remainder of 2013 to be able to have level revenues in 2014.

Operator: Rob Wertheimer, Vertical Research.

Joe O'Dea - Vertical Research: This is Joe O'Dea on for Rob. First question is just diving into the aftermarket weakness a little bit more. Can you describe to what extent it's a combination of machines not running or cannibalization or is it really just sort of destocked mines and major overhauls that are put off? Then along with that do you find that the installed base of the equipment out there now is just more updated and so that versus is normal?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Yes. Let me give the answer to that we will sort of cover a couple of different areas to give you a comprehensive answer. One of those is in the U.S. We have seen our aftermarket order rates in the U.S. decline more than the volume decline, as our customers sort of take slack out of the system. They have mines that they've closed and redeployed some of those products to other mines. They've taken the stocking level down in the mines, but they continue to operate. Again as I said, there's a limit in life for that. We've seen in the U.S. this quarter, on a sequential basis, we've seen the order rates in the U.S. bottom out and actually, on a sequential basis, they are up slightly. So we are seeing that bottoming effect that all that stuff, the cannibalization and all the things that you mentioned are in the declined phase of the U.S. market and I think those are out of the system now and behind us. Again there is only so much of that that you can do. On the other end of the spectrum is the decline we've seen in the aftermarket from South America. South America contains our strongest commodities, a lot of copper, iron ore in Brazil and those are commodities that are strong active, production of copper is up, and we definitely are dealing with timing issues in that market. Some of that is the startup of LCM; Lifecycle Management Contracts tagged on to shovels that have recently been delivered into the market are starting to go to work. Those contracts, we are working on those and we will finalize those contracts, but in the timing of the first quarter, they didn't get done and we have the policy of not trying to rush contracts in getting them to a quarter because we will end up with terms that we don't really like. So there are probably two extremes, one is the U.S. market has worked through those adjustments and is the example of what happened. The U.S. market is reduced out to a level below the rate of consumption. So there is some upside in the U.S. market, just to get to normal consumption rates, not even counting any kind of increased production because of increased coal burn or increased export. So, we have overcorrected. We've got a little bit of an adjustment back through the upside to come in the U.S. market. The market in South America is strictly a timing issue, one of the things where everything happens at once. Under current conditions our customers are just more cautious and, last year and the years before, the mine mangers would continue on as normal, assuming that budget would be set appropriately. In today's world everybody wait, check and double check before you move forward, just to be sure that you don't get yourself cross large with new management, so new management or new director. So, there is just a lot more wait and check before you move forward. I think as we start the year, some of the dip we see in the first quarter is that make sure the budgets are in place first before you start spending the money. There is lot of variables going on, but I think by and large those variables are timing issues in our surface equipment business and the U.S. market collection is mostly behind us in the underground business. We may have a little bit more of a collection to go through in Australia, but the volume decline there are nowhere close to what we've seen in the U.S. maybe a modest impact, but nothing like we've seen in the U.S. market. Long answer to your quick question.

Operator: Michael Gallo, C. L. King.

Michael Gallo - C. L. King: Just wanted to dig in the aftermarket a little bit further. I was wondering if you could update us on what you're seeing as you try to develop the aftermarket at IMM. Then also if you could give us just some – a little better feel that some of the lack of parts and services you have seen in Australia and other markets wasn’t a function of lost share or just a more competitive environment in the market place?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: I will speak to the issue of share loss and then I will turn it over to Ted who is much, much closer to IMM and what we're doing in IMM and our plans on building that aftermarket around that business. So share loss that was our first concern was we are losing market share. We have done just a lot of drill down analysis on market share issues and we are confident that we are not seeing any market share loss. But maybe the normal things that go on but nothing material on market share. We are just seeing a slowing down of decisions by customers in response to mandates to reduce operating costs. Some of those operating cost reductions are coming out of consulting agreements and general contracting relationships, some of our customers, contract out their mining operations, some contract out longwall moves. There are a lot of those things are being looked at. Our aftermarket has limited ability to adjust because we deal with mission critical equipment. All the checks we have seen, we continue to see more of an impact of the market on our – the competitors who are selling knockoff parts for our equipment we are seeing more of a dramatic impact on those suppliers than we are on our own business. So we are pretty confident we are not seeing market share erosion. We are pretty confident that there is a limited time that our customers can underspend on parts and services without impacting the reliability of the equipment. So again we believe that the aftermarket is going to come back, it's going to get back on track here pretty quickly and we will finish the year closer to year-over-year comparisons. I will say that right now in Australia, we have 80 million tons of annual capacity; in Australia that's offline because of flooding. But that's 80 million tons of capacity that's not using parts or services. So that's examples of the indicator that it might take the rest of the year to bring some of that capacity back into production as they have to dewater the mine. So we do have those unusual things going on, but by and large, we are not especially worried about a long-term decline in the aftermarket. Then Ted, maybe we will have you talk about the aftermarket opportunities in IMM and what we are doing to begin to capture those.

Edward L. Doheny - EVP, President and COO, Joy Mining Machinery: Sure, in recommitting to on the not share actually using this downturn as a chance to actually get even more aggressive with our service differentiating ourselves and from the previous ramp up, really applying all our resources on the service business, so we don't believe it's a share issue. Directly into IMM, just reconfirming what we are doing, we bought the Company, is we are looking to really stand it up pretty strong, China is going through some tough headwinds, making sure we are focusing on the sales teams getting, making sure we are aligned to the markets and with our products, but the first step was injecting the Joy technology and we probably won't see that impact until the second half of 2013. The second piece is we've got our OpEx teams in their really leaning out what they have and the third one is really growing that service business. In China with the business we bought, really nice margins on OE, the road headers, the shares, we like that, but the aftermarket we saw is a real opportunity. They weren’t aggressive about their parts business even just simple things of how they label and attract some of the sub suppliers; we are going around and actually selling direct to the customers, so we're really bringing our team and really helping with the process, the products and even the people. They have their service engineers working on that, actually in that scenario they will look to expand. So, the first step is get the parts business, the second step is really upgrading that service capability or even bringing in service programs to talk to them, our lifecycle management, which is a different stage in the evolutionary model in China, but we really believe that that's a growth opportunity for us with the IMM business, but reconfirming the margins that they're selling at DOE is attractive, and we think the aftermarkets and upside, upside for us.

Michael Gallo - C. L. King: Then just a follow up question on the capital allocation, you've been obviously deleveraging over the last year since the IMM acquisition. I was wondering at what point you feel comfortable that the debt levels are down where you want them to be and we might look to see some of that free cash flow coming back to shareholders more aggressively again at some point.

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Based upon our outlook for the markets that we serve, we do have in our manufacturing network; we do have ample capacity looking elsewhere or not, in a position where we need to be adding capacity in the near term. We've done a lot to build out our service center fleet and we feel pretty good that we're in the finishing stages of doing that. So our capital requirements are going to come down, our pension funding requirements will come down at the end of this year. This will be a year where we will monetize some of the working capital build up we saw last year, so we will get more cash flow into this year as a result of that. I want to do two things. I want to have some cash built up so that if we see a strong strategic acquisition opportunity we can act on that. I also want some cash built up so that when we get into share buybacks we will be able to execute in a meaningful fashion. Don’t want to get into announcement of value and then a quiet period after that to build up cash. So in all likelihood we will be at that kind of a position in the second half of this year. So going into the second half of the year we will probably be in a position where we will start to look at capital allocation which would as a default value would be share buybacks and more than likely we will start to see some of that or announcements around that in the second half of the year.

Operator: Seth Weber, RBC Capital Markets.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets: Mike just given the kind of the moving parts around the customer orders and customer intentions, I am wondering, if you have had a chance to sort of scrub your backlog recently? I know that's something that you have done in the past and kind of gone through and looked at project by project basis for big contracts, is there anything to that? Is that something you revisited recently?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Yes. We constantly look at the quality of our backlog and if we went to 2008, the end of 2008 we entered the year with some backlog that was tied to letters of intent and not contract and not significant down payments. We have a much stronger policy around contracts and the down payments before we book the major contracts. So we feel really good about the quality of our backlog, discussions we have had with customers. In some cases we moved machines from one mine to another for a customer and things like that. So as they begin to relook at where they want to see production increases within their fleets, but we don't see any risk, any meaningful risk in our backlog. We feel pretty confident in our backlog, the quality of our backlog and the down payment of progress payments that we get on the backlog puts us in a strong position, if those current discussions would come up, but we haven't seen anything that that gives us any worry about the backlog. We have taken out a reserve on the backlog based upon Central Appalachian coal producers and we have not seen as much exposure to backlog cancellations from that category of customers as the reserve we've taken. So, I don't remember the exact numbers, but I think we will have about $120 million reserve, about a third of that was actually delivered to the customer, another third was cancelled and the final third remains in backlog I believe right now still yet to ship. So we don't see any – other than noise level stuff that, where people sort of switch out some equipment for configuration changes and model changes. We don't really see any significant issues around the backlog at this point.

Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets: Maybe just a follow-up for Jim, the $80 million cost save, can you just give us an idea how that's tracking and how we should think about the cadence of that flowing through the model over the next four quarters or so?

James M. Sullivan - EVP and CFO: Sure Seth. So we took the actions in the fourth quarter of '12 on the first trench, and that we expect to deliver $40 million savings for the full year and that will happen equally across the quarter. So the benefits from those actions last year are in our first quarter and really helping us keep the margin profile that we shared in the quarter. As we walk forward we did, as you know take a little bit of restructuring in the first quarter, it's going to accelerate in the second and third quarter. So, we'll see some incremental benefits because we are moving forward a little faster on some of the headcount related actions, but the facility moves that we're talking about will largely be announced in third quarter and really won't provide a lot of benefits in terms of earning and stuff until 2014. So think about year-over-year savings in '13 versus '12 in that $40 million to $50 million range. Then have another $40 million coming in, starting in the first quarter of '14. It won't all be there in the first quarter of '14, but it will ramp up across the year.

James M. Sullivan - EVP and CFO: Within our first quarter if you take out the SG&A cost that were added because of IMM, we've had a decrease in SG&A cost, which is one measure of the start of the cost savings running off of those restructuring programs.

Operator: Ann Duignan, JPMorgan.

Damien Fortune - JPMorgan: It's Damien Fortune on for Ann. Could you guys just talk about the cadence of ordering and how it progressed through the quarter? And whether or not activities picked up at all since the beginning of the year?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Original equipment orders were always lumpy. So, cadence isn't really a measurable item on top of the original equipment orders. The aftermarket orders were soft as we guided into the end of the year, December January were particularly weak on the aftermarket. So it is sort of around year end and the start of 2013 where we have seen the weakness which is sort of consistent with the view that some of this is driven by customers just managing their budgets going into year-end and being careful before they start spending in 2013 to make sure that they got a budget to cover those expenses. Again we look at the South America where we have seen some weakness in the aftermarket. There is a lot of add in there. The timing in South Africa we have some good projects on the drawing board in South Africa but they have quite a bit of labor unrest and the mines are finally going back to work. But it was late in the year before those mines went back to work and South Africa takes off about three weeks over the year in holidays, so we do get a significant disruption effect. So the cadence sort of indicates a weak finish to last year and a weak start to this year but again those are inconsistent with production rates and we believe that those really are not sustainable at those kind of order rates.

Damien Fortune - JPMorgan: Then just turning back to the OE business. Are there any of your product lines that are seeing higher demand than others?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Yes. I mean probably if I can answer the question in the other way and probably would be helpful, we have two things that I think that are working. One is that, on our Underground equipment as we see production declines coming out of Central Appalachia and we see more opportunities in places like the Illinois Basin in the U.S. but also more opportunities in Australia. Those will be longwall production and so we are shifting our product base from room and pillar continuous miners and shovel cars to longwalls. There's still those entry development equipment we sell with those longwalls, but on a percentage of sales basis, the room and pillar equipment will decline and the longwall equipment is increasing as a result of that. So our outlook reflects that shift, and our plans reflect that shift. We also went through a period and particularly reflecting our surplus equipment in 2011 and probably up to the first half of 2012. So we had really extremely strong order booking rates for shovels as projects that were put on hold in 2009 got restarted and they were in catch up mode. So we've got a lot of that bulge through the system and we are getting down now for order rates that are more reflective of sustainable growth other than catch up growth and there's a little bit of a slowing in the order rates for shovels on a year-over-year comparison as we get down to normal run rates with normal growth expectations in the industry. So there are a couple of moving pieces around the products for sure.

Operator: Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs: Mike, can you please talk about how you see the seaborne coal CapEx cycle playing out, we've seen pretty sharp cuts to production in Asia this year. Is that enough in your mind to shake excess supply by the end of '13 and potentially drive some level of CapEx recovery next year. How do you see that playing out?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: I will give you a rundown by all the commodities maybe, Jerry, rather than just in seaborne coal markets. We are going to see CapEx for copper slow down a little bit not because copper has negatives, but because there has been a lot of CapEx deployment in and around copper capacity production. Some of that production is coming to the market right now. There is expectation that we might be even be in supply surplus, but we've had those expectations for the last seven years in a row, it never material, production rates have never materialized so we'll see some continuous strong CapEx around copper, but again more measured, more selective, coal markets, met coal we think has got upside, particularly as the steel mills go back to work and we're seeing that in the China and in the U.S., there is some upside in the U.S. auto production numbers are looking positive, and steel demand as a result of that. We also don't believe we're going to see very much increase in met coal supply coming out of Mongolia or Mozambique, limited amount out of Russia. So, the market does begin to shift more toward Australia and the U.S. as a result of that. So, there is some embedded pluses in that. But seaborne thermal coal markets still are in significant supply surplus, that number maybe around 20 million or 30 million annual tons of supply surplus, so you still have some things to work down on that. That's a bit of demand improvements, also some high grading work, we've got to still do some higher cost mines come off direction. We don't believe that our customers in the U.S. and we don't believe our customers in Australia are getting the kind of margins that would justify mine expansion in seaborne thermal coal. So, we're going to have limited CapEx deployment in that area until we get demand improvement, supply shortage, and more upside pressure on pricing, that's probably. We think with the outlook, particularly if we start to see some economic recovery, we think that could start to happen in the second half of the year, but certainly not before that, and maybe not until the early part of 2014.

Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs: Mike can you flesh out a comment you made in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that demand for your products will actually be up in 2014 even if global CapEx budgets are down pan, is that driven by your mix of commodities or can you just say more about the drivers behind your view?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: Yes. The drivers behind our view are the difference between CapEx as budgeted and CapEx that's spent. I mean this whole decision process is really ground down to a halt. I could tell you we have one project that is the top of our customer's list. It gets talked about on their earnings call. It gets talked about at their annual shareholders meetings and yet that project has slipped over several quarters as they just are much more methodical before they release the CapEx on that project. So it probably exemplifies that things are – there is no rush right now. I think that one of the issues that our customers have is that there is no penalty for being late. In the past they believed there was a penalty for being late with new capacity coming on line. Today there is no penalty for being late. All you are going to do is shorten supply, raise prices and you are going to bring your capacity under better pricing conditions. So they don’t have the sense of urgency they had before. I think that the difference we see on the spend level is we are so far behind on CapEx spend compared to what's budgeted we have to see improvement in spending levels even to meet the reduced budget expectations that we have right now and the reduced budget that we have seen spent for 2013 and even for 2014 is down. Current spend levels are far below that. So we things starting to change, I mean we are seeing a lot of projects come back onto the horizon have been scrubbed and evaluated under new criteria we are starting to see those projects come back. The likelihood that they will turn into CapEx deployment quickly is really high because they've gone through the scrubbing. They wouldn’t put them on the list unless they saw those as close to ready to start moving. So there are a number of things here. We are not just trying to run the numbers as they have been guided to our spending sooner or later, but also are looking at the projects coming into the pipeline, the quality of those projects, the equipment that this type is adding. We just see that those refresh lists are going to be managed to get started here quicker. A year ago, we had a lot of rescrubbing and re-racking to do in our prospect list. Today we think a lot of that has been – maybe a little bit more to do but a lot of that has been done which then sort of shifts them into, start to move forward on those projects volume.

Operator: Eli Lustgarten, Longbow Research.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research: Most of the questions have been answered, but I do have a couple of lingering ones. Can you talk about what's going on in the political regulation arena as we look out for the next six to nine months? I am not sure if there is anything coming down but in the U.S., the EPA are always a pain, and can radically affect the way the year unfolds. I am not sure what we should or should not expect or are you expecting anything to happen this year? Is it true, is there any other part of the global market that also is facing some of it, I know a little bit, some of it going on in China and something is going on in Brazil, but I just think we can talk a little bit about, is there any regulations you have to watch out for, things we have to worry about?

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: I have talked on this, but regulation is probably the least predictable of anything we work with. Yeah, I think that there is some regulatory issues that are flowing out in the U.S., but those regulatory issues will generally impact new capacity coming online, rather than existing capacity. It's been some older plants that have been moved out of the fleet, but those are older inefficient power plants and we're destined to come out of the fleet anyhow. So, what we see right now in the regulatory front is, still creates enough uncertainty that no one is really making very much investment decision. We're not seeing a lot of gas capacity additions being announced either. In fact we still see some of the utilities investing in clean coal technology because they're really concerned about the volatility around gas prices in a regulatory environment where they have go to from regulatory rate approvals. You got to remember we had a gas bubble for 20 years in the last – the last century. When that bubble broke, we got gas prices that went up above $11. So, that volatility in gas pricing is a concern that allows utilities. I think we look at the market and look at how much if the fleet of power generation is going to be where it is today, not going to be very much additions over the next three to five years, then the upside comes out of existing available capacity and we have, we believe that there is significant amount of exiting available capacity in the coal fired fleet. That fleet is underutilized, higher rates of utilization even getting up to the rates of utilization we've seen in recent years, would increase the coal burn significantly. We think that's more likely to happen if we look out at our sales in the next two, three, four years, it's more likely to be utilization of existing capacity. At the peak when we were in April of last year, we had single cycle peaking plants dispatched on to the grid running 24 hours a day. Those plants are high cost plants, very inefficient and designed to only run six to eight hours a day during demand peak periods. So I don't have numbers on exactly how much capacity is available in the gas fired fleet but it is not unlimited. If you go back and say they didn’t have enough capacity in baseload plants to meet the requirements in April which gives you some definition of what the limit is. As we look at Europe, Europe is switching rapidly from gas to coal because gas prices are – outside the U.S. gas prices are high and utilities are losing money burning gas and they are making money burning coal and we will continue to see them do as much coal burn as they possibly can. On top of that places like Germany are unlikely to build new nuclear power plants. They don’t want to utilize the ones they have and we have got to look for alternative fuel sources which is good for coal. Then China has got some issues around regulations. But a lot of that is also of old coal fired plants that have been around, like around the City of Beijing for example, there is a lot of old power plants that need to be replaced. I think there is a real likelihood you will see new technology super critical coal fired plants as part of that solution. There may be some when they used natural gas for China I think is going to be more difficult. The reservoirs – the shale gas formations are deeper in China. Water use is going to be a critical issue. Where they have shale gas is areas where they don’t have much water and water is already an issue in the western provinces. So there is a lot of complexity around the issues in China. I don’t see them making a dash to gas. I think you will still see a balanced approach and you may see a little bit more build out around gas, a little bit more renewables, but I still think a significant amount of (refleeting) their power plants still utilizing the best coal technology that's available today. So I don't know, there is probably not a specific answer in there. I guess the end of the question, it's a combination of risk and opportunities and that's sort have been the definition of the market for the last four or five years as we've gone through different phases of regulatory issues. I don't really see that to be too much of a change going forward.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research: A quick follow-up, last year, you had two projects you were mining that came through, you had two projects that you are monitoring for this year that you are hoping to come through, are those still in line or have those been pushed out and be pushed by other ones? I am just trying to get some idea in that space.

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: One of those is the one I just talked about earlier about being at the top of our customers list, I guess talked about a lot, so we are – we are again down the final stages on that, making sure we get a contract that we can have confidence we can deliver on spec, on time and on budget, and that clarity in today's environment is very, very important for us. So we are getting much closer on that. The second one is a project tied to our power plant that's behind schedule, so there is a little bit of time relief because it will need coal before the power plant is ready to come online. So it's still a viable project. It's still a viable opportunity for us. But the timing of the power plant has pushed that back and we are not – that may still slip a quarter or two more. But I think on the other side, we are going to see more projects come back into horizon as the new qualification process delivers new projects into the list that, when they get on the list, that moves into startup a lot quicker than what we've seen over the last year.

Michael W. Sutherlin - CEO and President: I guess with that, we are just on the top of the hour. So I think probably the best thing is to just wrap up here. Again, I just want to close and make a couple of closing comments. I think in summary sum up what we've talked about today. I think that we are seeing some encouraging, but early signs of market improvement. However, the impact on us is more likely to be on the horizon and around the corner. So, we don't expect it to have near term impact. Therefore, we're going to continue to focus on reducing our cost and streamlining our business, and that's going to allow us to respond better to those upside opportunities, and the results are going to give us more leverage in that respond. We think that's the right place to position the Company under current market conditions. Again, I want to thank everybody for being with us on this call. Thank you for your continued interest in Joy Global.

Operator: That does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.