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By Jeremy Glaser and Robert Johnson, CFA | 06-03-2015 11:00 AM

No May Flowers in Monthly Jobs Report

Friday's employment report will likely bring another good, but not great, headline number; however, workers should finally see some wage growth, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.

Jeremy Glaser: For Morningstar, I'm Jeremy Glaser. The U.S. private sector added 201,000 jobs in May, according to the ADP report. I'm here with Bob Johnson--he is our director of economic analysis--to look underneath this data and also to get his preview for Friday's report.

Bob, thanks for joining me.

Bob Johnson: Thanks for having me today.

Glaser: Let's start with the ADP report. I know it hasn't been the most predictive recently--

Johnson: That's for sure.

Glaser: But it is a preview of those official government numbers we get on Friday. 201,000 jobs: How does that look versus how this report has been reading recently?

Johnson: I would characterize the ADP report as a little bit of a Goldilocks type of report. The ADP number has been modestly different from the government's number. The ADP number has kind of been on a straight down trends since November. We had a great November; everybody kind of agrees on that. [ADP] says we've been pretty much on a downhill slide since then, and this is the first month where we've really had a nice pick-up, month to month. We're back over 200,000 jobs added. So, that's a nice improvement from where we were, at 169,000. So, it's a nice little pick-up that we're seeing there in that number. Like I said, the government numbers have been a little bit more volatile, but [the ADP number] was a good number, and it's good to see it trending upward. It's not the 300,000 jobs added that's going to scare the Fed into raising rates tomorrow; it's not the 100,000 number compared with the 169,000, which would might indicate that we're going into a recession. So, that's a very positive thing.

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