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By Jeremy Glaser | 03-03-2010 05:18 AM

Do You Need an Investment Umbrella?

Dividends are the ultimate umbrella when dark clouds are on the investment horizon, says DividendInvestor editor Josh Peters.

Securities mentioned in this video
MO Altria Group Inc

Jeremy Glaser: Do you need an investment umbrella? I'm Jeremy Glaser with I'm here today with Morningstar DividendInvestor editor, Josh Peters, to see exactly what an investment umbrella is and what's on the horizon for investors coming up.

Josh, thanks for talking with me today.

Josh Peters: Good to be here, Jeremy.

Glaser: So do you see a lot of dark clouds forming over the investment horizon?

Peters: Well I'll tell you, it's not a bad idea to carry an umbrella if there's a meaningful possibility it might rain. I think a lot of the clouds that have been hanging over the American economy over the last two or three years are perhaps lifting. We've got some kind of economic recover underway.

But the bigger, broader picture is that stocks are still not cheap. Whatever you think of the economy's long-term growth prospects, how things may have changed in the post-bubble environment, what you can say is that relative to history, price earnings multiples are still relatively high against average earnings, and dividend yields certainly are very low compared to past norms.

So I think it pays to think not in terms of it's going to rain, there's going to be bad economic events, bad stock market events, but to try to think proactively in terms of ways to insulate yourself from the worst effects that you might have to experience if worst comes to worst.

Glaser: So if it does start to rain, what are some of the umbrellas, if you will, investors could keep in their toolkit?

Peters: I think one is to look for stocks with lower price-to-earnings multiples, where you have better earning power and you're paying less for it. I actually priced out one of my two model portfolios, my Builder Portfolio. It's trading at quite a bit lower PE than the market overall.

So I'm not making a bet on as much earnings growth. I'm not having to take the same level valuation risk as the market overall in holding this particular basket of stocks. I like that, to look at it on an account-wide basis.

Dividend yields also, above average dividend yields I think are a very valuable umbrella. Here you have a source of return that's in cash, it's always positive, you never have to give it back. This is a reason dividend yields will provide you with a reason to go on owning and finding some reward in stocks, even if valuation multiples are contracting, even if economic growth disappoints.

And with those higher dividend yields, you don't need so much growth. Your dependence on having a big economic recovery or vigorous long-term economic growth is lessened. You're better prepared for what could be a more difficult environment. If you own a stock like say Altria Group with a 7% yield, maybe 3%, 4% type of growth from a stock like that will make it very rewarding to own. You don't need double-digit growth in a situation like that.

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