Surveying the ETF Landscape for Bargains
Plus, our take on the new solar-energy ETFs, Middle East funds, and more.
Plus, our take on the new solar-energy ETFs, Middle East funds, and more.
Following is a quick synopsis of goings-on in the exchange-traded fund industry, including our big-picture view of the ETF landscape, a rundown of recent ETF analyses, feature articles, and blog postings, as well as links to ETFs that recently launched.
30,000 Foot View
It's been about a month since we last checked in on ETF valuations. What has happened over that span? Well, the Dow has advanced nearly 700 points, or about 5.6%, while the S&P has risen 70-plus points, and the Russell 181 points. The rally hasn't been confined to the U.S., as MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets have notched double-digit returns over the past four weeks or so.
Our ETF valuations tell the tale. Whereas Diamonds Trust, which tracks the Dow, was about 20% undervalued, in our estimation, in mid-March, it was recently trading at a less hefty 14% discount to our fair value estimate. The same story holds for SPDRs Trust (SPY) (about 17% undervalued a month ago versus 13% undervalued as of April 21) and BLDRS Emerging Markets (8% discount one month ago versus 6% discount as of April 21).
That said, there are still plenty of bargains to be had in our opinion. To put ETF valuations in perspective, we'd normally be buyers of a diversified ETF like SPDRs or iShares Russell 1000 (IWB) when it's trading at an 8% or greater discount to our fair value estimate. By that standard, the S&P 500, Russell 1000, Russell Midcap, and variants thereof still look inexpensive to our eyes. Also, generally speaking, the relationship between quality and valuation continues to hold: The higher-up the market-cap ladder one clambers, the more plentiful the bargains, and vice versa. Thus, whereas the portion of iShares Russell 2000's (IWM) portfolio that we cover was recently trading at about a 7% discount to our fair value estimate, blue-chip heavy ETFs like Rydex Russell Top 50 (XLG) are about 16% undervalued in aggregate.
And what of sector ETFs? Generally speaking, the most beaten-down ETFs--homebuilders, financials, and consumer-related funds--logged the biggest gains. For instance, whereas the typical financials ETF was about 22% undervalued a month ago, now it's about 16% undervalued. Not a single ETF sector category got cheaper over the past month, though health-care ETF valuations more or less didn't budge--the average health-care ETF was recently trading at about a 12% discount to our fair value estimate. Consumer-related ETFs still look cheapest with real estate and natural-resources funds at the opposite end of the spectrum.
New ETF Analyst Reports
We've put out a slew of ETF analyst reports in recent days. Here's a capsule summary of each write-up that we've published:
Blog Roll
Here are some of the topics we've covered recently in our ETF-related blog, Basis Pointing.
New Listings
Following is a tally of ETFs and ETNs that began trading in the last week or so (we've linked to the relevant prospectus whenever possible).
By our count, 75 funds have launched thus far in 2008, with commodity (25) and currency (9) products being most common. Exchange-traded notes have accounted for roughly one in every two launches this year. All but three of the commodity and currency products launched this year have been ETNs, making 2008 the Year of the ETN.
ETF Pipeline
Only one new ETF--PowerShares MENA Frontier Countries--entered the pipeline in the past few weeks. The PowerShares fund would track an as-yet unnamed index of roughly 50 stocks based in 10 Middle Eastern and North African nations (Nigeria, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates). It would be the first ETF to target these countries specifically. (Though SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa treads similar ground, it stakes the bulk of its assets in Israel and South Africa; neither of those countries figure into the index that the PowerShares fund will track.)
Taking Stock
Want to know how some of the most popular ETFs have fared? This performance summary should whet your appetite.
If it's the leaders and laggards that interest you, then give our best/worst performers list a look.
Finally, looking beyond ETFs to the benchmarks and industries themselves, you can find a wealth of performance data on Morningstar.com, including performance stats by indexes, sectors, and industries. Also, be sure to check out our quote reports for the Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq Composite indexes.
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