Mon, 20 Feb 2017
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Although June payroll gains were better than recent averages and hourly earnings rose, the report was not entirely upbeat, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
Last month's employment numbers showed a continued, steady improvement, but they weren't so strong that the Fed will feel forced to taper its easing programs, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
The Fed has played a key role in nudging the recovery along, but the taper of bond purchases won't torpedo the economy, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
Negative second-quarter GDP growth is not out of the question, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson , but the third and fourth quarters should rebound.
Deficit reductions for the current fiscal year could lead to less government borrowing, but also less spending, which would weigh on GDP, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
Household net worth is another data point to eclipse precrisis levels and points to further increases in spending despite sluggish income growth, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
Higher unemployment claims during the reporting period, a seasonal headwind, and past June disappointments stack the deck on the downside for Friday's report, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
If February's job growth comes in above expectations, the central bank will have to take a hard look at raising rates later this month, given recent inflation data, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson .
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With weak business investment and government cutbacks, the consumer and housing sectors will be the two main legs of growth in the current economy's unbalanced stool.
Increased Fed economic forecasts of just last week already look embarrassingly high.
After bottoming at 1.4% a year ago, 10-year rates jumped much closer this week to the 3.0%-3.5% range that would be expected with current inflation.
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