Welcome to the first day of May!
We are seeing significant market impacting news stories the last couple of days. The more-abysmal-than-expected 1st quarter GDP was released followed by what we view as a surprising move by the Fed to reduce their tapering by 50% for the time being. This is the first signal by the Fed that they believe the weather-induced economic hangover could become more persistent than originally thought.
We were projecting in January that the 2014 market highs would occur in late April or early May and the market is essentially at new highs as we expected. We continue to believe a severe correction will occur this summer regardless of the pace of economic growth, to be followed by a market rally in the closing months of 2014.
While our team maintains a current outlook based on our macro and technical interpretations, we will continue to allow the actual movement of the markets to determine our position sizing and exposure.
We introduce a fresh look and format for the PCM Report this month. The format will return to research-focused content next month but we hope you enjoy the perspective provided through this month’s Q&A.
Brian Lockhart, CFP
Chief Investment Officer
|Geoff Eliason |