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  1. Sharpen Your Portfolio Plan for 2014 and Beyond

    Roundtable Report: At the outset of 2014, Morningstar strategists dig into the market's current valuation and expected return, seek out high-quality U.S. and foreign stock opportunities, size up the role of cash today, assess the Fed's impact on the market, and reveal the best ways to fight inflation.

  2. Finding Value in a Challenging Market Environment

    In this special one-hour presentation, Morningstar experts share their takes on how investors can navigate a world with slightly overvalued stocks , an uncertain interest - rate environment, and a slow-growing economy.

  3. Rising Rates and Your Steady-Eddie Stocks

    Steady dividend-payers may be under some pressure as interest rates rise in the nearer term, but that's no reason to dump them, says Morningstar analyst Alex Bryan.

  4. Low-Vol Strategies May Underperform When Rates Rise

    Interest - rate sensitivity is part of the risk with low-volatility strategies, but attractive risk-adjusted performance over the long term may make them worthwhile for some investors.

Low Volatility Abroad

This ETF allows investors to diversify into international stocks while keeping risk in check.

Alex Bryan, 01/24/2014

While international stocks tend to be more volatile than their U.S. counterparts, much of this incremental risk comes from currency fluctuations. Currency hedging is one way to reduce this risk, but this approach also sacrifices the protection that foreign stocks can offer against a decline in the value of the dollar. 

A low-volatility international-stock fund, such as iShares MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility EFAV, may offer a better way to reduce the risk of investing in foreign stocks. It attempts to form the least volatile portfolio from the MSCI EAFE Index, which includes stocks from developed markets in Europe, Australia, and Asia. These stocks are more likely to enjoy durable competitive advantages than the average company in the MSCI EAFE Index and tend to be more profitable. For instance, the fund's holdings generated a higher average return on invested capital (13.7%) than those in the MSCI Index (10.4%) over the trailing 12 months through December 2013. They skew toward defensive sectors including health care, telecom, consumer defensive, and utilities. But these tilts aren't too exaggerated because the fund's sector and country weights are anchored to the MSCI EAFE Index. Not surprisingly, the fund's quality holdings tend to be less sensitive to the business cycle than their peers, which helps provide a smoother ride.

The back-tested performance of this low-volatility strategy is impressive. From June 1988 through December 2013, the MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility Index outpaced its parent index, with about 80% of the volatility (the fund was only launched in October 2011). During that span, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index kept pace with the broader U.S. equity market, with a similar reduction in volatility. These results are broadly consistent with more-rigorous empirical studies on the performance of low-volatility stocks. 

While they may not continue to keep pace with the broad market going forward, there is reason to believe that low-volatility strategies, such as the one this fund pursues, will continue to offer better risk-adjusted returns than the market. Most active money managers are compensated based on their performance relative to a benchmark. However, many are not allowed to use leverage to boost returns. In order to juice their returns, these investors may tilt toward high-beta (volatile) stocks, which should, in theory, outperform their less risky counterparts. However, this collective bet on high-beta stocks pushes their prices above their fair values, leading to low risk-adjusted returns. Conversely, these managers may neglect boring low-volatility stocks, which can cause them to become undervalued relative to their risk. This bias is not isolated to professional managers. Rather, it extends to any investor who is unable or unwilling to use leverage to meet return objectives. Investors may also overpay for volatile stocks because they often offer a small chance of a large payoff, much like a lottery ticket.

Despite the structural advantages that low-volatility stocks enjoy, they carry relatively high interest-rate risk because their cash flows are less sensitive to the business cycle than the average company. That has worked to their advantage over the past few decades when interest rates were falling. However, rising interest rates could create a bigger hurdle for low-volatility stocks going forward because they will likely experience less growth to offset the negative impact of higher rates. 

The fund's geographic diversification helps reduce this risk. Just more than half of the fund's assets are invested in continental Europe and Japan, where rates will likely remain low for quite some time. The Bank of Japan's new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, has committed to an aggressive monetary policy in order to hit a 2% inflation target by the end of 2014. As a result, Japanese interest rates will likely remain ultralow. Similarly, the European Central Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near term because the eurozone is struggling with an unemployment rate above 12% and anemic growth. Even with their interest-rate sensitivity, low-volatility stocks will likely continue to be less risky than the broad market.

The Macro View 
The eurozone has a long way to go to resolve structural imbalances and establish a sustainable growth trajectory. Deleveraging in the public and financial sectors has significantly weakened demand, which has intensified price competition. In order to control costs, firms have laid off workers and cut back on hiring. High unemployment contributes to the vicious cycle of weak demand as consumers cut discretionary spending. Given these challenges, it is not surprising that the fund currently has an underweighting in stocks based in the eurozone. 

However, conditions in Europe have started to stabilize. Business activity across the eurozone has expanded throughout the second half of 2013, according to Markit Purchasing Manager Index Survey data. New orders and exports helped drive this growth. This improvement in demand has helped reduce the number of job losses, though the labor market remains weak. The recovery has been uneven, with Ireland and Germany generally holding up better than Italy, France, and Spain. The United Kingdom has held up better than its neighbors on the continent. It enjoyed healthy growth in the manufacturing and services sectors throughout much of 2013, based on PMI survey data. This growth has driven an improvement in business confidence and employment. 

Alex Bryan is an ETF analyst with Morningstar.

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