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Stocks continue to struggle in January and recent economic numbers haven’t been as good as expected (Jobless claims and German GDP) so is it time to panic? Not at all, the trend of the stock market is still up as is the trend in the economy. Nothing goes up in a straight line, a correction for the stock market coming into January is not only normal, it is healthy.
At least for now the investment landscape is pretty much the same as it was last year:
1. Low interest rates for the foreseeable future
2. Improving economy with a couple of setbacks along the way
3. Knowledge that the Fed will taper but only in the face of an improving economy.
Porter Stansberry and the End of Obama
A client just brought to my attention that Porter Stansberry has a new video out about the End of Obama and the doom and gloom it will cause. He puts this type of stuff out every now and again and has a real good ability to scare the heck out of people. With all of the doom and gloom and Dow 40,000 stuff out there we need to remember a couple of important points:
1. Nobody can predict the market, economy, etc.
2. Sensationalism sells—-the media and individual investors don’t want to hear about the market going up 5% they want either the Dow 40,000 guys or the market is going to crash guys. If I want you to buy something from me I am much better off either promising you great riches or scaring the heck out of you about what will happen if you don’t buy from me.
3. A broken clock is always right twice a day—if I am a doom and gloomer or a market is going to go way up guy and I keep on my message then at some point I will be right, then the media will crown me a genius. I have been seeing doom and gloom from Stansberry since 2009, so far he has been totally wrong, but at some point we will have another bear market and he will play up how he called it.
Here is an interesting article talking about Stansberry’s end of Obama presentation:
Will we have another bear market at some point? Of course we will. However, being tactical it doesn’t really matter as we will sell our stocks and buy whatever is going up.
Positioning and Recent Moves
Our overall positioning right now is still for a sell off in bonds, an improving economy, and a rise in US stocks.
We have been using selloffs to add to our counter trend positions in Small Caps and the S&P 500. The volatility we have had so far this year has shortened the cycles we look at so I wouldn’t expect to hold onto these counter trend positions very long.
Income Strategies: We are currently positioned for a sell off in Treasuries and for continued economic growth.
Trend Aggregation Strategies: Our momentum models are fully invested while our counter trend models are partially invested.
Momentum Strategies: All of our equity models are fully invested.
Specialized Strategies: Our momentum models are fully invested while our counter trend models are partially invested.