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Tuttle Tactical Management Weekly Market Notes

Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this letter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Tuttle ...

10/23/2013

As expected Congress kicked the can down the road on the debt ceiling. By all accounts the Republicans seemed to take a PR hit on this one so either side might be reluctant to fight about this issue in the future but I am sure they will find something else to fight about, and roil the markets about.

Events like this can be scary for investors as everything they see predicts gloom and doom. A few key things to always remember about people in the media predicting bad things are:

  1. A lot of these people are always predicting catastrophe. A broken clock is right twice a day also. Bear markets and recessions will happen every couple of years so if you are predicting one you will eventually be right.
  2. If you predict bad things long enough you get stuck into that positions. An analyst noted for being a perma bear recently came out and recommended investors up stock holdings to 50% and was ripped for it.
  3. Being ultra bearish sells. The media loves to make a bull and bear case for everything, the more extreme the better. So if you are noted for being bearish you will often get the chance to be on TV and print.

It is critical to sort through the noise to realize what is really something to worry about and what is just a pain in the butt.

Positioning and Recent Moves

Income Strategies: Our Income Strategies are positioned for an uptrend in stocks and some select bond sectors.

Trend Aggregation Strategies: We are currently fully invested in our equity momentum models in accordance with the market trend. Our counter trend models are in cash waiting for market weakness. After the most recent rally the market is looking overbought so the cash may be put back to work shortly.

Momentum Strategies: Our Momentum Strategies are at their full equity allocations.

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