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I am going to be at the ETF Asset Manager Summit in Chicago today and tomorrow so this week’s notes are a day early.
So far September isn’t turning out too bad. The market hasn’t recouped its August losses but most of our strategies have. Everything that we worried about going into the month has turned out well:
1. Jobs Report—not to hot not too cold
2. Syria—Looks like there is not much support out there to go in.
3. Emerging Markets- They have quietly been on a tear.
4. China–Economic numbers are looking good
As I write this the futures are up again signalling that the overbought/oversold cycle may be shifting back towards longer rallies. Short term though stocks still do look a little overbought so we are due for some profit taking at some point soon.
No moves this week.
How Is This News?
I saw an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday quoting a couple of emerging market mutual fund managers saying that emerging markets were due for a rally. Emerging markets have underperformed big time this year so if the rally continues at some point investors will go where the value is and emerging markets will pop. However, when you ask emerging market money managers what they think about emerging market stocks what do you expect them to say? Same thing goes for any type of “style box” money manager. Wall Street is real good about having people with vested interests give opinions that suit that interest. I understand that sometimes they can have some interesting insight or make a decent case for their asset class but investors need to always take this with a grain of salt. First off, nobody can predict the market. Second, whenever you see or hear someone touting something you need to look at what their vested interest is.