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This past week has been volatile. Friday’s jobs number ended up being perfect, not to good, not too bad, causing a big market rally. It has to be noted that the two day rally also came when the market was oversold and was a bounce off of the S&P 500′s 50 day moving average.
Yesterday the market sold off, the excuse this time were some of the issues overseas (Turkey, Japan, ECB stuff, etc). The market also probably got a little ahead of itself on Friday but what is going on in emerging markets is troubling and bears watching.
Today, the futures are pointing to a 100+ point up move for the Dow Jones on the open.
Is the Bull Market in Bonds Finally Over?
We are starting to see the signs:
Interesting and Not Completely Useless Information
Credit Suisse recently upped their target for the S&P 500 to 1730 for 2013 and 1900 by the end of 2014 but they actually included some interesting analysis beyond the usual gobbly gook:
We sold all of our counter trend positions in the S&P 500, Small Cap Stocks, and Dividend Stocks after Friday’s rally. Yesterday’s selloff caused us to buy back the S&P 500 positions. This brings the cash in our Trend Aggregation strategies to about 30% across the board. Our Momentum Strategies are still fully invested.
I Don’t Care What Other People Made, I Just Care What I Will Make
Over the past few weeks we have won a bunch of awards for our past performance. As I talk to financial advisors across the country I am always asked about it and I tell them all the same thing—-Past performance, ours, or anyone else’s, is pretty much meaningless.
All past performance tells you is that other people either made money or didn’t, it doesn’t tell you whether you will make money in the future. Think about it, did the past performance of internet funds in 1999 tell you anything helpful about 2000-2002? Did the past performance of any stock fund give you any hint to how it would do in 2008? No. When evaluating any investment you need to ask the following: