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Tuttle Tactical Management Weekly Market Commentary

Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this letter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Tuttle ...

04/24/2013

Bulls and Bears continue to fight it out around the S&P 500 record high.  There is a lot to worry about at this point—-earnings and economic numbers have been somewhat disappointing, terrorism fears are back (Boston Marathon, Canada, fake Twitter posts, etc), and we continue to see a divergence between riskier areas of the market and less risky areas.  On the plus side there is still nowhere else to go except for stocks.  As we have said before, volatility around an all time high is normal and to be expected.

Equity Markets
Our momentum indicators are still extremely bullish on the stock market.  Our positive reading on stocks does not mean that the market is guaranteed to rise from here.  There are still many risks on the horizon (Poor corporate earnings, problems in Europe, slowing economy, partisan bickering in Washington, etc) that could cause a selloff. However, our research suggests that when our momentum indicators are bullish the rewards of being invested outweigh the risks.

Short term the market is starting to look a little overbought and we have sold some of our positions (S&P 500 and Dividend Paying Stocks) into strength.

Equity Matrix

Time Frame

Market Condition

TTM Positioning

Short Term

Slightly Overbought

100% Cash

Intermediate Term

Uptrend

Fully Invested- S&P 500 & Mid Cap

Fixed Income Markets
Our momentum indicators still show that most areas of the bond market are weakening.  We still see momentum in high yield bonds, preferred shares, local currency denominated emerging market debt, and international TIPs

We continue to hold our counter trend position in long term Treasuries.  We understand that over the intermediate and long term Treasuries are probably the worst bet you can make, but over the short term they are looking oversold and have provided protection during selloffs.

Fixed Income Matrix

Time Frame

Market Condition

TTM Positioning

Short Term

Oversold

100% Invested in Treasury Bonds

Intermediate Term

Most markets in a downtrend

High Yield, Preferred Shares, Local EM, Intl TIPs

Top Holdings

1. Cash

2. Mid Cap Stocks

3. Small Cap Stocks

4. S&P 500

 

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