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Tuttle Tactical Management Weekly Market Commentary

Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this letter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Tuttle ...

03/13/2013

The Dow continues to make new highs but the rate of climb has slowed considerably this week.  This is normal as markets have to take a breather after large moves.

Equity Markets
Our momentum indicators are still extremely bullish on the stock market.  Our positive reading on stocks does not mean that the market is guaranteed to rise from here.  There are still many risks on the horizon (Poor corporate earnings, problems in Europe, slowing economy, partisan bickering in Washington, etc) that could cause a selloff. However, our research suggests that when our momentum indicators are bullish the rewards of being invested outweigh the risks.

In the US we are now heavily weighted towards small cap stocks as they are showing the strongest momentum..  Globally, we continue to favor broad based International Developed Stocks.  Shorter term the market is now looking overbought so our countertrend models are now 100% in cash.

Equity Matrix

 

 

Time Frame

 

 

Market Condition

 

 

TTM Positioning

 

 

Short Term

 

 

Overbought

 

 

100% Cash

 

 

Intermediate Term

 

 

Uptrend

 

 

Fully Invested- S&P 500 & Small Cap

Fixed Income Markets

Our momentum indicators show all areas of the bond market are weakening.  High yield bonds are still the only area we see with any momentum as they can tend to trade more like stocks than bonds at times.

We continue to hold our counter trend position in long term Treasuries.  We understand that over the intermediate and long term Treasuries are probably the worst bet you can make, but over the short term they are looking oversold and have provided protection during selloffs.

Fixed Income Matrix

 

 

Time Frame

 

 

Market Condition

 

 

TTM Positioning

 

 

Short Term

 

 

Oversold

 

 

100% Invested in Treasury Bonds

 

 

Intermediate Term

 

 

Most markets in a downtrend

 

 

1/4 Invested in High Yield Bonds


Top Holdings

1. Cash

2. Small Cap Stocks

3. S&P 500

4. Dividend Paying Stocks

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