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Tuttle Tactical Management Weekly Market Commentary

Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this letter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Tuttle ...

02/20/2013

Markets continued to move up this week in spite of looming Fiscal Cliff budget cuts.  Everyone still expects a selloff but money continues to flow into the market as it has nowhere else to go.

Equity Markets
Our momentum indicators are still extremely bullish on the stock market.  Our positive reading on stocks does not mean that the market is guaranteed to rise from here.  There are still many risks on the horizon (Poor corporate earnings, problems in Europe, slowing economy, partisan bickering in Washington, etc) that could cause a selloff. However, our research suggests that when our momentum indicators are bullish the rewards of being invested outweigh the risks.

In the US we continue to have equal positions in Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks.  Globally, we continue to favor broad based International Developed Stocks.  Our shorter term counter-trend indicators are fully overbought and we have sold our counter-trend positions in Dividend Paying Stocks and Small Cap Stocks into recent strength.

Equity Matrix

 

 

 

Time Frame

 

 

 

Market Condition

 

 

 

TTM Positioning

 

 

 

Short Term

 

 

 

Slightly Overbought

 

 

 

100% Cash

 

 

 

Intermediate Term

 

 

 

Uptrend

 

 

 

Fully Invested- Small Cap & Mid Cap US Stock

Fixed Income Markets
Our momentum indicators show all areas of the bond market are weakening.  High yield bonds are still the only area we see with any momentum as they can tend to trade more like stocks than bonds at times.

We continue to hold our counter trend position in long term Treasuries.  We understand that over the intermediate and long term Treasuries are probably the worst bet you can make, but over the short term they are looking oversold and could provide some protection if we do have any sort of pull back in stocks.

Fixed Income Matrix

 

 

 

Time Frame

 

 

 

Market Condition

 

 

 

TTM Positioning

 

 

 

Short Term

 

 

 

Oversold

 

 

 

100% Invested in Treasury Bonds

 

 

 

Intermediate Term

 

 

 

Most markets in a downtrend

 

 

 

1/4 Invested in High Yield Bonds

Top Holdings

1. Cash

2. Mid Cap US Stocks

3. Small Cap US Stocks

4. S&P 500

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