Pickings are slim in this year's leading category.
Through Feb. 9, the Latin America stock category has been 2012's best performer among the 90-plus Morningstar categories. It has not eased into the top spot by default; it has earned its place. The category has soared 18.4%, putting it more than 4 percentage points ahead of the next-best performer, the U.S.-focused technology category. That’s quite a turnaround. In 2011, the Latin America group sank 22.6%, posting the second-worst category performance.
A change in the attitudes of global investors helps explain the trend. Despite ongoing worries about the eurozone debt crisis and restrained expectations for global growth, encouraging economic news from the United States and the hesitant but meaningful steps that European leaders have taken to address their situation have eased investor fears to a degree.
As a result, some who had fled from what they consider riskier holdings have returned. In that sense, the strong Latin American gains are part of a broad theme. Other categories hit hardest last year, such as U.S. financials and diversified emerging markets, also land among the highest gainers early this year.
That said, there are specific reasons why the Latin America category tops them all. In part, its position owes to the fact that concerns remain in other areas. For example, China’s market, while up this year, has been restrained somewhat by continuing worries about that country’s slowdown in growth, and perhaps by currency issues, internal unrest, and other factors unique to that nation. And though U.S. bank stocks have rebounded as investors’ economic fears have receded, pushing up returns in the financials category, some doubts about the banks’ prospects remain. Meanwhile, sentiment toward stocks in Brazil, by far the region’s biggest market, has benefited from a series of interest-rate cuts by that country’s central bank.
Another factor is boosting the portfolios of Latin America funds as well. The currencies of Brazil and Mexico, the countries that dominate the portfolios of Latin America funds, have risen sharply against the dollar this year. In addition, Petrobras PBR and Vale VALE, the Brazilian oil and mining companies, respectively, that play substantial roles in most of these portfolios, have each climbed more than 20% this year.
Buying a fund just because its category is on the rise is never a good idea, of course. But there’s nothing wrong with taking a look. Unfortunately for those interested in putting a Latin America fund on their watch list, though, the pickings are slim.
To begin with, there aren’t many mutual funds to choose from. Although a tiny number of new entrants have appeared in recent years, even now there are only seven distinct funds that are not leveraged and that cover the whole region rather than just Brazil. Of those, three have been rated with the new Morningstar Analyst Ratings. Only one of them gets a positive rating, a Bronze received by BlackRock Latin America MDLTX. (That is a load fund.) The others with Morningstar Analyst Ratings, Fidelity Latin America FLATX and T. Rowe Price Latin America PRLAX, are no-load, but both receive ratings of Neutral. Premium subscribers can see the reasoning behind those evaluations by looking at the Morningstar Fund Analysis for each fund.
A fund that does not yet have an Analyst Rating, JPMorgan Latin America JLTAX, is worth keeping an eye on. It has outperformed so far, and is on track to have a solid five-year ranking when it hits that anniversary at the end of this month. (That too is a load fund.) However, its expense ratio, at 1.89% in 2011, is quite steep even by the standards of this costly category. Another offering without an Analyst Rating, DWS Latin America SLANX, has a longer history than the JPMorgan fund, but its manager turnover and unimpressive performance damps its appeal.