Is the extra income still worth it?
High-yield corporate-bond mutual funds have surged in popularity so far in 2011. They took in $7.0 billion in new money during the first two months of the year alone, according to Morningstar estimates, which comes close to matching the category's $7.6 billion intake during all of 2010.
But are investors too late? Some could be chasing the impressive gains junk bonds have posted in recent years. High yield took a big hit during late 2008's financial crisis when frozen credit markets and rising defaults pushed yields on these bonds above 20% and prices below $60 (on par notional value), on average. But it rebounded with a vengeance beginning in March 2009; the Barclays Capital U.S. High Yield Index gained a record 58% that year. The sector's advance slowed somewhat in 2010, but the typical high-yield fund still managed to generate a 14% gain last year, almost matching the S&P 500's performance. Capital appreciation made up a significant component of the sector's performance in both of the past two years. The average dollar price of bonds in the Barclays index rose in 2009 to $95 from $61, and then to $102 by the end of 2010.
Those heady gains are over for now. With the index's average price above $103 currently, there's very little room for prices to rise further. Many of these bonds include call features, which limit how high dollar prices can go; issuers have an incentive to call their bonds when they're trading at a premium, because it means they can issue new debt more cheaply. The sector's potential income returns also appear muted: The Barclays index's 7% yield is near the low end of its historical range. The last time the index was priced above $103 was early 2005, when it also yielded a little less than 7%. That year, the typical high-yield bond fund returned just 2.6%.
It's All Relative
But even though absolute yields look low today as well, they still have some appeal relative to Treasuries and other high-quality bonds. That's a key difference between today and 2005. The yield gap between the average junk bond and Treasuries is currently around 5 percentage points, which is just below the long-term average. But back in 2005, high-yield corporates looked even pricier in relative terms, offering just 3 percentage points of additional yield over Treasuries.
Investors are more nervous about interest-rate risk today, too. Although the prevalence of call features can limit high yield's upside, they also lower the sector's duration, a measure of interest-rate sensitivity. In a March report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes that an increase in callable issuance and shortening noncall periods has caused the sector's overall duration to drop to its lowest level ever. The extra yield cushion junk bonds offer over Treasuries can also blunt the impact of rising Treasury yields. The sector demonstrated its resilience during the latest Treasury sell-off. The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond index tracker Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
For these reasons, many diversified bond managers like high yield today. BlackRock's CIO Rick Rieder points out that a dearth of yield available in other sectors could continue to drive investors into junk bonds in the year ahead. He notes in a recent commentary that his team especially likes "higher-quality high yield, such as credits in the BB segment of the market, which provide a considerable yield pickup relative to BBB credits without displaying meaningfully weaker credit characteristics." Investors take some comfort from today's low default rates and rating agencies upgrading more bonds than they're downgrading. A number of intermediate-term bond funds with the flexibility to own non-investment-grade bonds have loaded up on high yield lately. Funds such as Janus Flexible Bond
Keep Your Guard Up
High-yield corporates aren't completely insulated from Treasury yield swings, though, and that could become more apparent if the difference between junk bond and Treasury yields continues to narrow. The Wellington team that runs Vanguard High-Yield Corporate
For their part, many high-yield managers now find themselves looking for ways to protect their portfolios against rising interest rates. For instance, Fidelity's high-yield bond funds, including Fidelity High Income