UPDATE: Buckle up: there are more than 200 stock catalysts left in 2017
By Ryan Vlastelica
The health-care sector in particular has a lot it could move on
The U.S. stock market may have seemed devoid of action lately, with the historically weak month of September instead emerging as one of the quietest periods in history (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-slump-on-wall-street-at-least-not-yet-2017-09-19), but don't worry: there will be plenty of events that could drive markets over the remainder of the year.
According to Goldman Sachs, "there are more than 200 single stock catalysts before year-end, in addition to earnings and potential unscheduled preannouncements."
Because the investment bank looked at individual securities, as opposed to the broader market, the analysis focuses more on micro events, rather than the kind of headline factors--for example, economic data, government policy, or geopolitical issues--that may drive major indexes on a day-to-day basis.
While the catalysts were identified "across all sectors," Goldman wrote that the industrial (XLI), consumer-staples (XLP), and especially the health-care (XLV) sectors had particularly crowded calendars for events, and added that options investors weren't fully recognizing the potential for these industries to move on news.
"Nearly 40% of the upcoming catalysts that we have identified into year-end are in the Healthcare sector, most of which occur before November expiration," wrote Katherine Fogertey, one of Goldman's options strategists, citing medical conferences--including the American Society of Hematology and the American College of Rheumatology--as events "which could have important drug data and implications for the sector. Additionally, we find a number of investor days and drug updates that could make the sector more volatile into year-end."
Despite all this, the sector has an implied volatility level that is two points below its average over the paste year, it wrote.