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Great Investment Mistakes: The Bear Trap

Getting out of the market is much easier than getting back in.

John Rekenthaler, 03/21/2017

Free Verse 
It's poetry day! In response to my request for investment confessions, Mr. S. sent the following - 

My mistake: 
sold all stock 2005 after reading Mr Volckers April Op-Ed in WaPo felt stupid till 2008 but ultimately vindicated bought 2008-9 bottom 20% Waited for even more blood on street as expected by the perpetual doomsayers 

Sold all and decided to give money to "one who knows” 
One who knows is the eminent and very decent John Hussman seemed so aware, correct in his Rx with beautiful HSGFX performance till that point 

Luckily only bought HSGFX with 20% (came so close to 100%!!) remaining port cash

Like opium his elegant and confident weekly columns soothed the unease to leave $s there 

The line that got me and kept me was the confident “superior over the full market cycle”

Come to Jesus moment: 
6 mo ago decided to think this through: 
Fund has lost 50% already - how would he make up the 100% to break even over the full cycle?? 

Never fell for the charlatan and doomster arguments but sucker for a well argued and elegant argument specially if they have amazing graphs!! (I am an academic so may be susceptible) 

is vice president of research for Morningstar.

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